Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x734ff7717e3946e274487728c551b44cc4329a34a970ab84d283b92d0b57225c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,046
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,440
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,046 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e06…9754backed Yes | 10c | 972.68$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.25 | 136 | 30.1%41 W · 95 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7385…0c36backed Yes | 7c | 949.33$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.09 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 6c | 425.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 378.82$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.21 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 12c | 341.65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 251.47$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.71 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eaa…3561backed Yes | 12c | 240$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 8c | 204.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 7c | 197.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 74c | 190.3$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.26 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 13c | 175.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…cfc6backed Yes | 15c | 169.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 11c | 165.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 7c | 151.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 146.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 15c | 135.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d2…ff97backed Yes | 11c | 132.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccf…7d58backed Yes | 10c | 130.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 12c | 129.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 12c | 120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 12c | 102.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…7889backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 11c | 95.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac1…1a0ebacked Yes | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 27c | 81.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 78c | 77.36$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 14c | 74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf6…24f9backed Yes | 16c | 67.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 25c | 58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 73c | 51.15$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 77c | 50.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3602…98dfbacked Yes | 25c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 75c | 44.38$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked Yes | 27c | 43.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 73c | 38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8dc…2222backed No | 78c | 37.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee2c…55cfbacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 72c | 25.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89cf…76b3backed No | 72c | 20.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfda7…66dbbacked No | 74c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 41 | 78%32 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 73c | 18.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb040…ef71backed No | 75c | 14.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.