Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x736c8d79d28b1e5bc8e57157eccef9769b10a5f5f4cf1ad20604f77a8de813dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,566
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,767
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,566 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x73c2…4261backed Yes | 1c | 51,428$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.13 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee24…bd15backed Yes | 9c | 1,200$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked No | 48c | 636.79$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.82 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 46c | 571.58$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.18 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 52c | 509.59$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 10c | 279.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7b…bd59backed No | 52c | 213$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.3 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 46c | 211.23$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.94 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…e5babacked No | 43c | 206.31$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.78 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4c…830abacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 56c | 193.99$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.12 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked No | 51c | 188.37$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.45 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 48c | 174.22$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.74 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 59c | 150$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.04 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 49c | 150$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.89 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0f…b951backed No | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.09 | 49 | 83.7%41 W · 8 L | +13.2wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xbda2…97ebbacked No | 73c | 150$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 16 | 93.8%15 W · 1 L | +5.3wins | +0.33per pick | 61cpaid | +48%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed No | 53c | 134.17$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.6 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 14c | 132.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 43c | 124.77$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.7 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdafd…2ad4backed No | 55c | 111.01$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.35 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed Yes | 14c | 111$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 43c | 103.65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 49c | 99.53$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.34 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 51c | 95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 43c | 94.59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.39 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 48c | 82.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 42c | 81.6$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 47c | 79.23$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.32 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 56c | 78.85$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 64c | 78.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 54c | 75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 45c | 71$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 54c | 67.06$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 51c | 62.8$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.01 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ead…b7bfbacked No | 71c | 56.41$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 54c | 53.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 26c | 50.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…16e9backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86eb…5864backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -74%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0797…48fdbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8c…b2eebacked No | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6955…541bbacked No | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +103.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 55c | 49.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 47.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 52c | 47.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 53c | 46.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Yes | 39c | 45.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed No | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 48c | 43.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.82 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 59c | 43.84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 51c | 41.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 60c | 41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa498…727bbacked Yes | 27c | 40.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf7…ebeabacked Yes | 49c | 38.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No | 50c | 38.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 51c | 37.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 37c | 34.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 57c | 34.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 52c | 34.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x440c…8dccbacked Yes | 44c | 33.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c7…7070backed No | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +96.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 56c | 31.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 30.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 49c | 30.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 48c | 29.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed Yes | 45c | 28.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 43c | 27.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 53c | 26.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 53c | 26.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 47c | 26.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50be…6b67backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e72…bd5dbacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +8.1wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 56c | 24.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac44…f420backed Yes | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 51c | 21.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 68c | 21.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 70c | 21.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 49c | 20.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b3…931cbacked Yes | 56c | 20.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x278a…dfddbacked No | 50c | 20.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x676c…20bfbacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 69cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…4fc6backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed No | 59c | 19.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…6372backed No | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.