TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 8?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$63,566
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$64,767

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,566 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x73c2…4261backed Yes1c51,428$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.131723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee24…bd15backed Yes9c1,200$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1076636.4%24 W · 42 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+74.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae2e…40adbacked No48c636.79$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.8229520.7%61 W · 234 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick18cpaid+25.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes46c571.58$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.1865043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde9c…e014backed Yes52c509.59$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26325839.9%103 W · 155 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes10c279.02$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.235,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c7b…bd59backed No52c213$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.35060%30 W · 20 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-10.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed No46c211.23$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.9446626%121 W · 345 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x802d…e5babacked No43c206.31$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.785158.8%30 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d4c…830abacked Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10614.9%3 W · 58 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-62.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes56c193.99$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.1224238%92 W · 150 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x29df…aeecbacked No51c188.37$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.4514043.6%61 W · 79 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No48c174.22$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.744,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59d4…b745backed Yes59c150$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.0427540%110 W · 165 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No49c150$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.895,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb0f…b951backed No50c150$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.094983.7%41 W · 8 L+13.2wins+0.27per pick57cpaid+59.7%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xbda2…97ebbacked No73c150$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.21693.8%15 W · 1 L+5.3wins+0.33per pick61cpaid+48%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x5235…43a8backed No53c134.17$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.624539.6%97 W · 148 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfba0…a083backed Yes14c132.86$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4910834.3%37 W · 71 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No43c124.77$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.73,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdafd…2ad4backed No55c111.01$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.3512228.7%35 W · 87 L+9.2wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+38.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xef40…b116backed Yes14c111$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5414926.2%39 W · 110 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes43c103.65$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9263538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531,08855.5%604 W · 484 L-27.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes49c99.53$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3423633.5%79 W · 157 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No51c95$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.63,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No43c94.59$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.3928737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ba3…57bcbacked No48c82.52$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.8539159.8%234 W · 157 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes42c81.6$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2725935.1%91 W · 168 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No47c79.23$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.322,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed Yes56c78.85$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.061,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No64c78.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.4186173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No54c75$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.58,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No45c71$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.894,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes54c67.06$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3344945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8215…1279backed No51c62.8$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.0138758.7%227 W · 160 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes57c60$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.415843%68 W · 90 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3ead…b7bfbacked No71c56.41$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.414170.7%29 W · 12 L+7.1wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+46.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes54c53.55$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.929,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes26c50.01$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.913738.7%53 W · 84 L+13.3wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+32.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc84f…16e9backed Yes51c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-48.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x86eb…5864backed Yes51c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5520%1 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.39per pick59cpaid-74%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0797…48fdbacked Yes39c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b8c…b2eebacked No49c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.51656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6955…541bbacked No42c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+103.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes39c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.51,02425%256 W · 768 L+20.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+39.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No55c49.07$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.199963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No54c47.71$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.9512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No52c47.25$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.872,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No53c46.95$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.0643859.6%261 W · 177 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f0b…8202backed Yes39c45.06$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5210441.3%43 W · 61 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd43e…3604backed No44c45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.251553.6%276 W · 239 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4130…2fd6backed No45c44.44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.479832.7%32 W · 66 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x304b…a619backed No48c43.89$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.8227552%143 W · 132 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No59c43.84$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.037,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85c8…80f8backed No51c41.19$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.3839158.1%227 W · 164 L-1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No60c41$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.391,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa498…727bbacked Yes27c40.41$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.99728.9%28 W · 69 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4bf7…ebeabacked Yes49c38.82$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.934369.8%30 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No50c38.46$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.3816046.3%74 W · 86 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No51c37.34$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.3135854.7%196 W · 162 L-13.7wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes37c34.75$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8632738.2%125 W · 202 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4560…8ce8backed No57c34.61$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.0235058.3%204 W · 146 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No52c34.44$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.392,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x440c…8dccbacked Yes44c33.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.969635.4%34 W · 62 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3c7…7070backed No45c33.33$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.33560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick35cpaid+96.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked No56c31.55$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8893837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No64c30.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.164,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No49c30.51$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.672,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes50c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1556048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed54…4967backed No44c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.849854.6%272 W · 226 L+46.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.72,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No48c29.3$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2861752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52d7…0ff9backed Yes45c28.47$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8538258.9%225 W · 157 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes50c28$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No43c27.86$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed No53c26.86$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.561,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcaaa…da37backed No53c26.48$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.444659%263 W · 183 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes47c26.21$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.31,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50be…6b67backed No45c25$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.85650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e72…bd5dbacked No72c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.926065%39 W · 21 L+8.1wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+20.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes56c24.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1447538.1%181 W · 294 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xac44…f420backed Yes50c24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125147.1%24 W · 27 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No51c21.96$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.8580050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x652d…46b3backed No68c21.52$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.8961820.7%128 W · 490 L+36.9wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3507…71d7backed No70c21.4$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.433373%243 W · 90 L+1.1wins0.00per pick73cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96e6…fecebacked Yes49c20.4$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1026142.1%110 W · 151 L+15.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa1b3…931cbacked Yes56c20.34$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.398067.5%54 W · 26 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x278a…dfddbacked No50c20.22$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.112050%10 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x676c…20bfbacked Yes59c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.81944.4%4 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.25per pick69cpaid-37.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9337…4fc6backed Yes58c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.68148.1%39 W · 42 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd85…7a3dbacked No60c19.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.041,05051.2%538 W · 512 L-99.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2e27…9967backed No59c19.53$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.9213765.7%90 W · 47 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce1d…6372backed No75c18$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.55100%5 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+47.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.