TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Pittsburgh Piratesof Pittsburgh Pirates, Washington Nationals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,563
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,546

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,563 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5268…135dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates48c2,742$1,329 inWon+$1,412.7111,51952.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L+213.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Washington Nationals53c1,289$678 inLost-$678.14,40544.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L+80.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x980a…315cbacked Washington Nationals55c910.91$501 inLost-$50110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Pittsburgh Pirates51c463.31$235 inWon+$228.610,97951.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L+139.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Washington Nationals49c405.36$199 inLost-$198.584,08757.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L+66.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Washington Nationals55c400$220 inLost-$22063943.3%277 W · 362 L+1.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Washington Nationals46c290.17$133 inLost-$133.483,21951.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L+148.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Pittsburgh Pirates26c220.94$57 inWon+$163.51,85544%817 W · 1,038 L-31.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17d7…9e1ebacked Washington Nationals49c32.76$16 inLost-$161,02658.1%596 W · 430 L+18.9wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a73…1c47backed Washington Nationals76c31.94$24 inLost-$24.194839.6%19 W · 29 L-4.7wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-21.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x13d0…4a70backed Washington Nationals46c25$12 inLost-$11.534639.6%137 W · 209 L-12.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-16.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1024…9651backed Washington Nationals68c22.13$15 inLost-$1533556.1%188 W · 147 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42fe…b1d0backed Washington Nationals73c14$10 inLost-$10.162085%17 W · 3 L+3.0wins+0.15per pick70cpaid+21.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.