MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1953b51dfe74b12cd989f7412174e65c5a8aa874d88c251084ddcb5d5b74c6e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $249,333
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $286,236
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $249,333 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 65c | 123,986$80,607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80,607.48 | 141 | 56.7%80 W · 61 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 36c | 27,901$10,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,835.28 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 71c | 16,617$11,779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,778.58 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 46c | 12,318$5,627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,691.28 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b14…e02abacked Under | 48c | 3,572$1,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,714.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 34c | 3,080$1,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,022.96 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 2,517$1,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,273.84 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 65c | 2,316$1,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,505.13 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 34c | 2,000$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,320 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 34c | 1,795$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,180.72 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 34c | 1,784$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,174.78 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 34c | 1,674$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,105.14 | 1,586 | 48.5%770 W · 816 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 34c | 1,619$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,067.53 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 34c | 1,254$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.89 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 34c | 1,024$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.84 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 65c | 1,006$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.06 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 35c | 820.6$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.39 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 34c | 680$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.5 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 56c | 529$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.76 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 34c | 525.62$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.91 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 32c | 495$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.18 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Over | 34c | 485$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.47 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Over | 34c | 441.18$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.18 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…f59bbacked Under | 67c | 374.48$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.9 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fce…6732backed Under | 72c | 292.78$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 42c | 255.19$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.41 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…6569backed Under | 72c | 234.25$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.43 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 34c | 199$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.38 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 34c | 194.14$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.13 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Over | 30c | 159.17$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.42 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…ba7cbacked Under | 67c | 125.15$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 50c | 118.91$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.71 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 38c | 109.46$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.1 | 1,278 | 57%728 W · 550 L | +33.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…8250backed Under | 69c | 93.88$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.07 | 509 | 54%275 W · 234 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Over | 50c | 89.32$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.32 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff68…8379backed Over | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Under | 53c | 73.51$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 244 | 48.8%119 W · 125 L | -14.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 50c | 66.79$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe16…60bebacked Under | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Over | 36c | 56.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.24 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Under | 67c | 51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 340 | 44.4%151 W · 189 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51f4…3e21backed Over | 33c | 51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 250 | 34.8%87 W · 163 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 51c | 44.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 57c | 42.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 1,026 | 58.1%596 W · 430 L | +18.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a73…1c47backed Under | 54c | 41.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Over | 42c | 35.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 64c | 31.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Over | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 392 | 53.6%210 W · 182 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e20…5cf9backed Over | 36c | 29.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 56c | 24.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 1,240 | 58.1%721 W · 519 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Under | 53c | 24.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b46…5f58backed Under | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked Over | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7761…f504backed Under | 66c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 84 | 41.7%35 W · 49 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington NationalsPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 13.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington NationalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.