MLB · resolved market
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec20fb745b54c7df10b3a375f7507a64a74f603e0a37cdc942c799b0c06a3b50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pittsburgh Piratesof Pittsburgh Pirates, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,915
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,917
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,915 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 47c | 2,232$1,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,189.29 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals | 54c | 2,142$1,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,161.96 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 52c | 1,087$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.34 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 35c | 1,016$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.72 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Washington Nationals | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 736 | 50.7%373 W · 363 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 41c | 832.01$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.8 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Washington Nationals | 56c | 794.7$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Washington Nationals | 43c | 671$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.69 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Washington Nationals | 38c | 380$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.5 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 374.82$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.18 | 540 | 48.3%261 W · 279 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x009b…e769backed Washington Nationals | 70c | 168.39$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.87 | 122 | 62.3%76 W · 46 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Washington Nationals | 49c | 154.5$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.73 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 54c | 108.09$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.1 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Washington Nationals | 61c | 93.58$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.02 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 54c | 91.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.22 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Washington Nationals | 37c | 91.82$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 30c | 80$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 136 | 49.3%67 W · 69 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Washington Nationals | 70c | 80$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 58c | 77.44$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Washington Nationals | 49c | 68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 926 | 45.9%425 W · 501 L | -12.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d0…566ebacked Washington Nationals | 40c | 67.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 33c | 63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.21 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 46c | 62.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3be0…4fccbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 52c | 58.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Washington Nationals | 67c | 57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Washington Nationals | 67c | 57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Washington Nationals | 53c | 50.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 244 | 48.8%119 W · 125 L | -14.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a73…1c47backed Washington Nationals | 56c | 42.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Washington Nationals | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Washington Nationals | 61c | 35.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 47c | 31.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Washington Nationals | 56c | 29.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Washington Nationals | 56c | 29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 778 | 52.2%406 W · 372 L | +36.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Washington Nationals | 53c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Washington Nationals | 50c | 26.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 50c | 22.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 906 | 69.9%633 W · 273 L | +94.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington NationalsPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 13.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington NationalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.