MLB · resolved market
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d2b9e284c8328ad5df955e0e046ce6aa1fb70598a8a2b94c39577807b814185
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pittsburgh Piratesof Washington Nationals, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,328
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,309
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,328 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Washington Nationals | 41c | 12,220$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b5…7e72backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 8,028$4,817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,211.13 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 59c | 4,624$2,728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,895.8 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 59c | 4,000$2,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,640 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Washington Nationals | 40c | 2,048$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$819.19 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 1,885$1,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.06 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Washington Nationals | 40c | 1,569$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.46 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 1,500$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals | 33c | 1,438$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.33 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Washington Nationals | 39c | 1,159$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.01 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 1,090$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.35 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Washington Nationals | 40c | 999.01$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.97 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 984$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.85 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8c…9e9ebacked Washington Nationals | 40c | 941.7$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Washington Nationals | 32c | 859$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.25 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 835.97$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.39 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Washington Nationals | 40c | 652.68$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.07 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd437…ba37backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 600$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 59c | 520$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.2 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 460.24$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.89 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 449$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.1 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Washington Nationals | 43c | 284.54$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.77 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…faeabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 131.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 404 | 49.3%199 W · 205 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 115$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Washington Nationals | 40c | 91.09$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 59c | 80$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Washington Nationals | 19c | 68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0a…75acbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 465 | 46%214 W · 251 L | -17.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Washington Nationals | 27c | 54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 50.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…d18fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 453 | 48.6%220 W · 233 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Washington Nationals | 36c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd62…344abacked Washington Nationals | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 22.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 244 | 48.8%119 W · 125 L | -14.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 19.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington NationalsPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 13.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington NationalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.