MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x738bfb7dab631bfd2bba8b9e8c740b8119a4c6fbfa63fcf065e0e77003ebf2c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,606
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,656
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,606 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe9d3…079fbacked Under | 56c | 4,905$2,723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,182.42 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 40c | 2,203$884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$884.15 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 44c | 1,569$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.69 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 44c | 1,403$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.65 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 57c | 1,087$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.82 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2003…af6fbacked Over | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 124 | 46%57 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 55c | 982.18$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.2 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 943.01$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.87 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1da3…2f94backed Over | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 46c | 515$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 45c | 451$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.05 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Over | 37c | 423.65$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.75 | 335 | 15.5%52 W · 283 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Over | 56c | 270.21$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 403 | 48.4%195 W · 208 L | -18.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa106…5abbbacked Over | 56c | 265.73$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.21 | 197 | 52.3%103 W · 94 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 48c | 257$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.36 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 44c | 215.71$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.8 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 56c | 192.86$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 53c | 176.93$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.75 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Over | 56c | 125$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 54c | 119.67$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.62 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 45c | 99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 18c | 95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Over | 56c | 62.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 46c | 58.43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.55 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 53c | 57.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Under | 45c | 50.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Over | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ff…ec82backed Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 215 | 54.9%118 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ee…0f22backed Over | 55c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Under | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 469 | 46.3%217 W · 252 L | -25.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 41c | 24.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Under | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 4.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.