MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d4371d83f53bcec2acdcf07ef973bdbeb0b3f675fa8396220c87fd03e98601b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,513
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,351
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,513 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 67c | 4,948$3,316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,631.8 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 32c | 3,829$1,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,225.64 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 43c | 1,895$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.77 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 58c | 1,211$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.02 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 59c | 1,010$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.72 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 51c | 648$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.52 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 43c | 546.95$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.98 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 43c | 545.68$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.98 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99eb…0464backed Under | 69c | 500$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 47c | 398$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.17 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 10c | 279.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4cbabacked Over | 76c | 263.87$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 309 | 63.1%195 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Over | 48c | 236.77$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.5 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Under | 53c | 169.14$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.18 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 14c | 147.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…9e64backed Over | 32c | 138.2$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.22 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Over | 37c | 133$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.21 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x389d…995fbacked Over | 40c | 99.78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 48c | 89.86$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.01 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Over | 32c | 76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 32c | 70.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 48c | 69.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 47c | 64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24b1…cf50backed Under | 55c | 54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…4756backed Over | 37c | 49.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked Over | 40c | 49.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Over | 32c | 47.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Over | 32c | 42.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 41c | 38.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…10d9backed Over | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 355 | 47.3%168 W · 187 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Under | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 74c | 16.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 4.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.