MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1e35bdbfb77b3186e5a2ffd268a3a72e1031ccd40a934150ebbaf01a274bb5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Boston Red Sox, Philadelphia Phillies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,648
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,805
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,648 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Philadelphia Phillies | 69c | 3,080$2,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,113.66 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Boston Red Sox | 32c | 1,542$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,045.84 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Boston Red Sox | 33c | 1,500$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,005 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Philadelphia Phillies | 62c | 565.12$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.37 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Philadelphia Phillies | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Boston Red Sox | 33c | 404.55$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.35 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Philadelphia Phillies | 71c | 350$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.5 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Boston Red Sox | 31c | 233$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.15 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 62c | 224.05$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.97 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Boston Red Sox | 29c | 217$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.07 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Boston Red Sox | 36c | 198.2$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.11 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Boston Red Sox | 38c | 184.21$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.21 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Boston Red Sox | 38c | 172.2$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.76 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 39c | 128.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 339 | 34.5%117 W · 222 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Boston Red Sox | 61c | 125.04$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.76 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Boston Red Sox | 32c | 123.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.84 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Boston Red Sox | 40c | 107.63$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.95 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Boston Red Sox | 38c | 92.11$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.11 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 73.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | -9.5wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Boston Red Sox | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Philadelphia Phillies | 62c | 59.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Boston Red Sox | 59c | 52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Boston Red Sox | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 475 | 89.1%423 W · 52 L | +84.9wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +25%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Boston Red Sox | 37c | 49.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.01 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Philadelphia Phillies | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 37.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Boston Red Sox | 41c | 34.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Boston Red Sox | 38c | 33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Boston Red Sox | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6f…be20backed Boston Red Sox | 73c | 26.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60f7…80d2backed Boston Red Sox | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Boston Red Sox | 41c | 24.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 246 | 46.7%115 W · 131 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Philadelphia Phillies | 72c | 20.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Philadelphia Phillies | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 99 | 39.4%39 W · 60 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdf…8666backed Philadelphia Phillies | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Boston Red Sox | 61c | 17.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 4.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.