Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on March 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x739a9b7d5dfb69e8b0d9569b79f5cadb0bd6832d106e7589a2d1aa39bf37dc22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,815
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,815 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed Yes | 0c | 12,585$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ed…240fbacked Yes | 22c | 4,110$904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9582…391cbacked No | 78c | 1,400$1,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +142.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x444c…d450backed No | 78c | 1,380$1,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c4…04c5backed No | 78c | 1,330$1,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +136.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,254$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.85 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,195$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed Yes | 9c | 585.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 9c | 448.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x353e…9db2backed Yes | 14c | 357.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306e…dc89backed Yes | 11c | 338.63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 323.15$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.39 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 299.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…77d1backed Yes | 9c | 247.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…fc91backed Yes | 24c | 239.65$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.54 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 15c | 221.49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 12c | 185.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 7c | 177.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 150.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef9…7a60backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 20c | 139.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 78c | 131.33$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…4d9fbacked Yes | 14c | 106.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 146 | 17.1%25 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 24c | 101$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 15c | 99.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed No | 80c | 96.37$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 74c | 94.18$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 17c | 94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d7…77e7backed Yes | 15c | 91.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 12c | 87.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 15c | 87.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked Yes | 18c | 75.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…1f70backed Yes | 21c | 70.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 21c | 66.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e7…d075backed No | 78c | 63.33$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 59.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed No | 79c | 37.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 72c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 79c | 25.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe466…1a58backed No | 68c | 16.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on March 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 37°F or below on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 52°F or higher on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 38-39°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on March 5?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.