Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on March 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd983db396d6efc4169437b5e97770aa40979abe3c2253b423e8f41ee2c02ba9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,123
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,123 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 37c | 3,171$1,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,001.68 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfa…e524backed Yes | 9c | 999.58$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.96 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 16c | 921.61$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.24 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 14c | 693.19$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.79 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 66c | 583.27$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.33 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3877…fbf1backed Yes | 8c | 499.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -48%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 41c | 489.08$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.21 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 15c | 475.53$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.41 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 6c | 440$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 43c | 378$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.41 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 25c | 366.39$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.39 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e7…d075backed Yes | 14c | 358.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.67 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 353.01$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.65 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 78c | 315.8$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.17 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…fc91backed No | 80c | 308.67$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.93 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…d125backed No | 60c | 301.4$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.84 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 294.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 7c | 289.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 40c | 280.03$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c25…87c0backed Yes | 25c | 267.24$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.58 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1a…9ac7backed Yes | 17c | 266.39$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.07 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 14c | 250$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 50c | 244.78$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.77 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 51c | 244.64$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.79 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…b75bbacked Yes | 24c | 241.13$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.22 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 18c | 239.19$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.29 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 5c | 224.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 5c | 214.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…7c31backed No | 23c | 210.41$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.93 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 63c | 205.26$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.59 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 35c | 201.48$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.43 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 63c | 194.2$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.67 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 22c | 180.76$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 9c | 172.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 80c | 165.16$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa251…5df0backed Yes | 23c | 151.41$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcb…e0f9backed Yes | 11c | 151.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed Yes | 67c | 149.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed No | 44c | 146.26$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.02 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…75c8backed Yes | 11c | 122.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 86 | 23.3%20 W · 66 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 56c | 111.91$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.53 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 38c | 99.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b3…a494backed Yes | 20c | 98.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 12c | 98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8891…b5fcbacked Yes | 67c | 97.58$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.66 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0534…4300backed Yes | 67c | 95.74$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -4.8wins | -0.22per pick | 67cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9a06…699bbacked Yes | 12c | 93.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a75…e7d4backed Yes | 18c | 79.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed No | 26c | 72.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.64 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 40c | 72.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe573…ae05backed Yes | 17c | 71.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 71c | 68.49$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…1f70backed No | 21c | 68.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.66 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…77d1backed No | 45c | 67.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.71 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 50c | 65.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.57 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 64.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x80b3…e5d9backed Yes | 49c | 60.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3415…9d95backed Yes | 20c | 60.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 60c | 60.09$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 22c | 57.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 25c | 56.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…c8febacked Yes | 65c | 56.28$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 62cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 67c | 53$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.77 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 50c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…cefdbacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3827…5455backed Yes | 77c | 49.54$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 74c | 49.4$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6da7…762abacked No | 32c | 44.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | -20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…70e3backed No | 44c | 34.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x353e…9db2backed No | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 75c | 32.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Yes | 72c | 31.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed No | 46c | 28.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x292c…a010backed Yes | 54c | 25.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 74c | 23.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbb…c0abbacked Yes | 68c | 22.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x143e…2ddebacked Yes | 80c | 22.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 80c | 21.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b81abacked Yes | 70c | 19.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f6…628cbacked No | 80c | 16.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c8e…a415backed Yes | 68c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes | 70c | 15.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfc…20a2backed Yes | 80c | 12.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on March 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 37°F or below on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 52°F or higher on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 38-39°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on March 5?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.