Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on March 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda754de5a3ad786ed9d9f8a2bb0de882b29938584340bc32067c3b8f897cd470
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,992
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,992 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 27c | 1,285$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.8 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1a…9ac7backed Yes | 35c | 1,016$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.51 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 62c | 824.19$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.34 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…d125backed No | 56c | 738.82$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.19 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfa…e524backed Yes | 25c | 699.89$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.97 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3877…fbf1backed Yes | 23c | 517.45$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.78 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -48%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99cb…4bc2backed No | 77c | 485.12$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.18 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 449.23$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.91 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f4…c210backed Yes | 29c | 399.88$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.44 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 75c | 358.32$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.22 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 32c | 330.54$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.18 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…34d2backed No | 75c | 310.33$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.23 | 66 | 74.2%49 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 60c | 307.21$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.94 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 299.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 273.64$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.24 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…e9f4backed Yes | 64c | 260.18$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.65 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 37c | 244$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.48 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa251…5df0backed Yes | 31c | 228.6$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.66 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 26c | 211.9$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…b75bbacked Yes | 38c | 208.61$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.29 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 37c | 191.7$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.69 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 16c | 185.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 15c | 184.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 74c | 176.82$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.25 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed Yes | 17c | 161.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa785…acb6backed Yes | 38c | 161.32$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.25 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 62c | 160.26$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.9 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 70c | 158.97$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.69 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6da7…762abacked Yes | 8c | 156.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | -20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…abdbbacked Yes | 23c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcb…e0f9backed Yes | 31c | 148$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.12 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 13c | 145.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…c619backed No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x486b…d12abacked Yes | 76c | 130.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.55 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 66cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Yes | 17c | 129.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c25…87c0backed Yes | 41c | 127.05$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.05 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…7c31backed No | 40c | 125.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.81 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 27c | 124$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4416…b6ecbacked Yes | 21c | 119.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf534…d84abacked Yes | 22c | 114.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 21c | 109.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a35…6387backed Yes | 24c | 102.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 20c | 101$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 99.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 33c | 99.03$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 96.59$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…0a0bbacked Yes | 44c | 91.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c03…51e2backed Yes | 30c | 83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 82.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9be2…cba5backed No | 76c | 79.37$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 74cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e38…b4cbbacked Yes | 41c | 75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0d…4ed5backed No | 76c | 72.07$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -6.0wins | -0.21per pick | 72cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb9…8e7dbacked No | 72c | 68.94$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6c…d8cdbacked No | 76c | 67.55$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 73 | 75.3%55 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f7…5a55backed Yes | 38c | 65.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 70c | 64.94$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x353e…9db2backed No | 77c | 64.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8864…7948backed Yes | 25c | 63.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a06…699bbacked Yes | 22c | 59.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 18c | 59.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 68c | 57.8$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 42c | 57.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 65c | 55.81$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 54c | 55.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.43 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 23c | 52.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 22c | 52.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c5…7932backed Yes | 27c | 51.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 62c | 50.56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfced…03d9backed Yes | 56c | 50.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +82%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43ab…f630backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1438…6d40backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +173.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34b9…fc5cbacked Yes | 27c | 47.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 80c | 46.92$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb66b…9659backed No | 74c | 46.19$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 73c | 43.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56da…fca2backed Yes | 27c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 30c | 40.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a05…cb86backed No | 77c | 40.31$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -3.8wins | -0.25per pick | 72cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 75c | 39.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81a2…5cdabacked No | 76c | 39.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6222…4546backed No | 79c | 38.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80b3…e5d9backed Yes | 78c | 37.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d45…020fbacked Yes | 29c | 35.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3e…cc39backed Yes | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 70c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…c8febacked Yes | 69c | 33.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 62cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…7105backed Yes | 45c | 33.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9708…c42abacked No | 76c | 32.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbac8…0837backed No | 64c | 31.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb9…1a1ebacked No | 68c | 29.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c40…fe21backed No | 74c | 27.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 72cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3142…441fbacked No | 74c | 26.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6883…4406backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 77cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on March 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 37°F or below on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 52°F or higher on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 38-39°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on March 5?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.