Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2be6ea603684faa5b5a528ce4f9ed131e2839475090170d6313ba4d197365904
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,618
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,618 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 54c | 523$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.36 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3877…fbf1backed Yes | 34c | 517.42$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.14 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -48%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 405.75$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.44 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 77c | 389.25$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.58 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 69c | 288.99$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.22 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…d125backed No | 56c | 269$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.64 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x353e…9db2backed Yes | 19c | 248.58$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 26c | 245.11$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.73 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 65c | 243.85$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.13 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4635…6c48backed Yes | 56c | 177.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 70c | 167.2$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.18 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56da…fca2backed Yes | 33c | 157.08$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.12 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 51c | 150$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…b75bbacked Yes | 17c | 150$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf534…d84abacked Yes | 49c | 143.26$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 64c | 131.46$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.99 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 30c | 127.68$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa785…acb6backed Yes | 34c | 122.68$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.52 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 70c | 122.13$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 34c | 112$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.97 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a81…b7e1backed Yes | 43c | 103.17$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 29c | 101$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5a…77e5backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 41c | 98.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.28 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 34c | 86.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 85.27$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 29c | 81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 65c | 80.42$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e7…d075backed No | 72c | 78.43$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 77.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 36c | 75.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 74.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 68c | 73.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe4…3e65backed No | 71c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed Yes | 33c | 68.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 34c | 63.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 35c | 60.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf083…3428backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74aa…ce7bbacked No | 59c | 58$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed Yes | 29c | 54.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…7c31backed No | 69c | 54.72$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 43c | 50.37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ab…f630backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1438…6d40backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +173.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 48.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 46c | 46.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 79c | 44.15$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x99cb…4bc2backed No | 73c | 39.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 46c | 38.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 38.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc97…5515backed No | 73c | 36.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c9…b92fbacked Yes | 42c | 35.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…8bebbacked Yes | 68c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +21.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…cf0fbacked No | 73c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3596…29dbbacked Yes | 30c | 32.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fde…87cebacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 68c | 29.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 63c | 27.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeed2…ad97backed No | 69c | 24.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…c8febacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 62cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4299…5749backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -74%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf03d…2bcfbacked No | 67c | 18.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…03ffbacked No | 67c | 18.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a29…ff3bbacked No | 71c | 17.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe466…1a58backed No | 70c | 15.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 37°F or below on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 52°F or higher on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 38-39°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on March 5?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.