MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73a9f6c6aa4e132b6de68e9a6520a69f24d3b8b146e4728ce261a554de5c59b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,349
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,531
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,349 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x433c…81eabacked Over | 39c | 1,756$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.7 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 38c | 1,716$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.85 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 54c | 1,556$841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.74 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 61c | 1,043$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.19 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 74c | 975.27$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.66 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 52c | 576.92$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…a73abacked Over | 28c | 339.29$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 72c | 329.29$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.2 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 50c | 215$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.85 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafca…92b4backed Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 61c | 105$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 51c | 92.63$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.24 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Over | 35c | 91.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Under | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 63c | 47.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 56c | 37.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 36c | 35.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 36c | 33.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 43c | 32.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Over | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 276 | 46.7%129 W · 147 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 61c | 29.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Under | 54c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ded…3350backed Under | 61c | 28.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 57c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x891d…b19fbacked Under | 75c | 22.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays won
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-6.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue JaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.