MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2acbb1d5711b43d93de8ec934f01b8c3fe212203b4bbcaee81b8a03652554458
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Toronto Blue Jays, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,444
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,455
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,444 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Miami Marlins | 52c | 5,440$2,829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,828.7 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 48c | 4,316$2,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,244.21 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 2,972$1,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,624.66 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Miami Marlins | 53c | 2,520$1,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,335.86 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 33c | 2,159$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,456.58 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 1,862$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,154.43 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 1,672$1,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,036.6 | 321 | 52%167 W · 154 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 1,507$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$934.61 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Miami Marlins | 63c | 1,415$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.53 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Miami Marlins | 67c | 1,200$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581f…9d8ebacked Miami Marlins | 68c | 1,085$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.12 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Miami Marlins | 61c | 999.95$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.97 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Miami Marlins | 59c | 908.43$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.24 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 780$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.4 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 759.83$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.39 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 725$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.5 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 654.3$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.21 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Toronto Blue Jays | 51c | 570.99$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.29 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…6daabacked Miami Marlins | 64c | 468.75$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Miami Marlins | 56c | 401.83$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.42 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Miami Marlins | 63c | 364.94$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.46 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Miami Marlins | 51c | 354.08$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.08 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 218.93$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.41 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 218.93$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.41 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 218.93$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.41 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 217.95$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.95 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…e4a2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 208.33$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Toronto Blue Jays | 49c | 199.03$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.5 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 197.11$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.41 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 153.84$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.84 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 33c | 141.96$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.57 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 138.34$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.92 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 119.14$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.44 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Toronto Blue Jays | 73c | 110$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 475 | 89.1%423 W · 52 L | +84.9wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +25%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 109.51$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.23 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Miami Marlins | 50c | 99.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 96$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.52 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 89.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Miami Marlins | 68c | 64.71$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 138 | 58.7%81 W · 57 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 62.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.24 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd030…f3f0backed Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 54.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Miami Marlins | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 41.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Miami Marlins | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 35.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 35.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde1b…5710backed Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 32.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Miami Marlins | 50c | 31.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Miami Marlins | 49c | 26.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Miami Marlins | 44c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 56c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x046a…0a3ebacked Miami Marlins | 56c | 22.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 56c | 20.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays won
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-6.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue JaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.