MLB · resolved market

Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c61fb1bc974903abf1cac4ae48f80074f67789955eac279b6de2ee09e142602

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: May 26, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $208,743
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $209,239

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $208,743 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in MLB
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4bff…fc26backed Over	49c	166,429$81,969 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84,459.66	436	47%205 W · 231 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under	50c	81,488$41,134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41,133.73	10,846	51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L	+137.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under	52c	26,382$13,719 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13,718.54	1,151	49.2%566 W · 585 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Under	52c	19,231$10,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,000	1,106	48.7%539 W · 567 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Under	50c	16,666$8,333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,333	1,385	49.5%685 W · 700 L	-4.9wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under	50c	14,526$7,216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,216.49	11,357	52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L	+209.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Over	50c	14,352$7,176 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,175.75	411	49.1%202 W · 209 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Under	44c	6,848$3,033 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,032.9	2,293	48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L	-24.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Under	52c	5,769$3,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,000	1,215	47.6%578 W · 637 L	-19.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	50c	2,265$1,130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,129.81	12,247	46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L	-68.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Under	51c	1,961$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	1,213	40.5%491 W · 722 L	-32.1wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Over	50c	1,923$966 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$957.45	3,453	51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L	+58.1wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	50c	1,790$889 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$889.42	8,086	46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L	+29.9wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Under	50c	1,600$800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$800	1,909	53.5%1,021 W · 888 L	+29.1wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under	50c	1,467$731 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$730.81	8,295	47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L	+72.4wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcba5…cd88backed Under	65c	1,441$944 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$943.95	660	50.2%331 W · 329 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Over	50c	1,000$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$500	2,407	48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L	-62.3wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b6d…dbbbbacked Under	67c	999.99$668 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$667.99	96	57.3%55 W · 41 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfff3…e2c5backed Under	52c	996$516 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$515.96	77	58.4%45 W · 32 L	+5.4wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+29.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd9ea…b781backed Over	50c	829.99$415 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$415	568	51.4%292 W · 276 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under	50c	814.71$410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$409.86	3,792	45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L	-5.5wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under	50c	712.82$355 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$354.81	9,728	46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L	+32.8wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under	51c	626$319 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$319.26	4,035	57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L	+72.2wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Under	48c	601.82$289 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$288.84	2,104	51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L	+11.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45d1…83dabacked Over	51c	588.24$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$288.24	138	51.4%71 W · 67 L	+6.3wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Under	49c	568.22$279 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$278.62	4,553	49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L	-9.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x96d9…18a0backed Over	49c	500$245 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$255	224	48.7%109 W · 115 L	+4.0wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x004e…c650backed Over	52c	474.83$247 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$227.92	60	48.3%29 W · 31 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7851…d471backed Over	51c	300$153 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$147	166	44.6%74 W · 92 L	-6.1wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over	50c	265.46$134 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$131.42	2,296	49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L	+37.8wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Under	64c	206.33$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.05	2,243	57.6%1,293 W · 950 L	+37.1wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	6,899	50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L	-7.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Under	45c	150$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.5	8,470	52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L	+510.0wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x86ee…511fbacked Over	51c	147.06$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.06	243	50.6%123 W · 120 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cd3…5896backed Under	48c	126.59$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.76	174	46%80 W · 94 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x085b…ab9fbacked Under	44c	113.52$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.95	339	34.5%117 W · 222 L	-9.3wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Under	46c	108.7$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3,457	51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L	+108.1wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x260b…aa9ebacked Over	53c	107.81$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.58	125	55.2%69 W · 56 L	+9.7wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc235…99f8backed Over	51c	99.74$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.87	890	53.1%473 W · 417 L	+5.3wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1f6…0981backed Under	58c	94.64$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	158	57.6%91 W · 67 L	+7.3wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over	53c	91.95$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.25	4,478	48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L	-47.7wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under	55c	90.91$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1,279	51.2%655 W · 624 L	-19.1wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x91b7…ad02backed Under	61c	81.97$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	39	38.5%15 W · 24 L	-4.7wins	-0.12per pick	50cpaid	-27.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under	49c	81.63$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	795	43%342 W · 453 L	-3.3wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Over	50c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	1,056	48.3%510 W · 546 L	-16.2wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b8d…bb92backed Over	52c	50$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24	586	52.7%309 W · 277 L	+14.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Under	50c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	726	48.1%349 W · 377 L	-17.6wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x96c1…2c59backed Over	51c	50$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.5	1,498	45.3%678 W · 820 L	-8.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3603…22edbacked Under	47c	50$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.5	518	49.4%256 W · 262 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x891d…b19fbacked Under	52c	47.91$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.88	127	46.5%59 W · 68 L	-6.2wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-16%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Under	50c	45.64$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.82	694	47.6%330 W · 364 L	-9.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e96…b306backed Over	51c	42.9$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.02	64	48.4%31 W · 33 L	-2.7wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under	52c	39.5$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.42	1,708	49.9%852 W · 856 L	-17.8wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe803…0416backed Over	52c	38.46$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.46	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-2.0wins	-0.29per pick	43cpaid	-72.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1400…765dbacked Under	52c	38.08$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.8	74	40.5%30 W · 44 L	-3.0wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a13…c07cbacked Over	52c	37.52$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.01	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.7wins	-0.28per pick	44cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Under	44c	30$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	570	46.8%267 W · 303 L	+14.0wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked Under	41c	30$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.3	418	36.4%152 W · 266 L	-31.6wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8b85…b31bbacked Under	52c	28.85$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-1.5wins	-0.09per pick	44cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0954…012abacked Over	52c	28.85$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.85	1,197	53.9%645 W · 552 L	+42.4wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x99d5…9622backed Over	36c	28.68$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.36	76	43.4%33 W · 43 L	-3.2wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf58…2bf4backed Under	45c	26.87$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.09	401	48.1%193 W · 208 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Over	47c	26.39$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.89	6,303	48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L	+181.4wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Under	48c	23.68$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.37	2,945	47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L	+3.8wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbd62…344abacked Under	69c	17.36$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	42	45.2%19 W · 23 L	-3.3wins	-0.08per pick	53cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5this page
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays won
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5Under won
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5Under won
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Over won
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Over won
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Over won
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Under won
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-6.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue JaysNo won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event