South American Leagues · resolved market
São Paulo FC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73b0f0e06750ac59fb68a1cb669d4a2e5dfd57051899404ef45aa20f75e4806d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,607
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,209
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,607 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f0f…0e48backed Under | 41c | 1,778$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.71 | 124 | 34.7%43 W · 81 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Under | 43c | 1,662$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.48 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 47c | 1,589$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.72 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 22c | 1,111$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.39 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57c3…44b8backed Over | 78c | 629.3$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.09 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d5…36bfbacked Under | 53c | 500$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 71c | 497.2$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.72 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…22bebacked Under | 15c | 458.75$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.81 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 32c | 345.97$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.71 | 650 | 58%377 W · 273 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39f6…abe1backed Over | 68c | 342$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.28 | 108 | 75%81 W · 27 L | +16.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Under | 37c | 329$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.41 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 55c | 293.97$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.1 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 50c | 292.07$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.39 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…5998backed Under | 9c | 268.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 174 | 40.2%70 W · 104 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…5409backed Over | 77c | 260.24$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.24 | 50 | 70%35 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c3…3e18backed Under | 11c | 231.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 22c | 230.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd32c…be8bbacked Over | 68c | 221.69$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.69 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 68cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 80c | 186.35$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.27 | 335 | 60.9%204 W · 131 L | +18.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7da4…f0a4backed Under | 12c | 179.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 63 | 15.9%10 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1c…3347backed Over | 39c | 172.41$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.04 | 215 | 38.1%82 W · 133 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc582…853cbacked Under | 10c | 160$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca8…7e67backed Under | 21c | 140$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…8a55backed Over | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 36c | 133.6$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.37 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 38c | 130.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.83 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaea3…7078backed Over | 78c | 128.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 56c | 125.17$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.12 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 50c | 119.76$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 28c | 118.95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa700…102bbacked Under | 22c | 118.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 106 | 18.9%20 W · 86 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf0…72cebacked Over | 68c | 117.51$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 35c | 114.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0563…f41cbacked Under | 48c | 112.54$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.38 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Over | 50c | 108.54$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.04 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 22c | 108.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 23c | 100.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 422 | 50.2%212 W · 210 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…5720backed Over | 52c | 80$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.69 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 22c | 75.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 23c | 70.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Under | 54c | 69.88$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 55c | 68.77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18c2…529abacked Under | 58c | 67.72$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb262…9b98backed Over | 68c | 66.25$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Over | 49c | 62.7$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.7 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +6.1wins | +0.18per pick | 33cpaid | +67%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…1565backed Under | 63c | 59.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.5wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc46e…9ed8backed Under | 27c | 56.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +7.4wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…0bb1backed Over | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb9…2772backed Over | 53c | 49.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 55c | 48.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 217 | 52.1%113 W · 104 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 391 | 27.1%106 W · 285 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 25c | 47.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 98 | 26.5%26 W · 72 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b53…95c4backed Over | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 72c | 34.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 359 | 58.8%211 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Under | 40c | 30.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 40c | 29.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac6c…d0d4backed Over | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 78c | 21.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 336 | 58.3%196 W · 140 L | +32.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 517 | 50.7%262 W · 255 L | +28.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…8b13backed Over | 72c | 17.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- São Paulo FC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-1.5)São Paulo FC won
- Spread: São Paulo FC (-1.5)Botafogo FR won
- Spread: São Paulo FC (-2.5)Botafogo FR won
- São Paulo FC vs. Botafogo FR: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- São Paulo FC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 2.5Under won
- São Paulo FC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 3.5Under won
- São Paulo FC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.