South American Leagues · resolved market
São Paulo FC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8c72356aabc3c748d35e65dabb163a3d0497bb78ed63168ab9ef95c71ae63be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,952
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,583
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,952 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 46c | 5,144$2,389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,755.49 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97dc…d8a5backed Over | 53c | 1,617$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.24 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 59c | 1,400$826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Over | 52c | 1,000$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.31 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…f636backed Over | 52c | 999.99$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.99 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5766…124fbacked Over | 50c | 899.99$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa700…102bbacked Over | 1c | 750$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 106 | 18.9%20 W · 86 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 56c | 720.14$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.79 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 47c | 478.25$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.68 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 52c | 476.4$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.05 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 424.29$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.97 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 52c | 417.04$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.86 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 58c | 383.07$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.61 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x886f…aa8fbacked Over | 53c | 380.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 15c | 334.67$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 52c | 329$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.08 | 213 | 49.8%106 W · 107 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Over | 42c | 267.37$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.25 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 20c | 262.59$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.45 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…f419backed Over | 53c | 241.51$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 52c | 236.57$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.95 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac7…c99abacked Over | 44c | 221.88$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.25 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Over | 68c | 220.97$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.26 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 57c | 218.91$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.26 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 35c | 213.02$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.95 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 47c | 209.37$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.96 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 14c | 207.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 57c | 203$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.61 | 217 | 52.1%113 W · 104 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Under | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 218 | 37.6%82 W · 136 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 52c | 190.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 317 | 45.1%143 W · 174 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 48c | 150$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 422 | 50.2%212 W · 210 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 48c | 143$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.36 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 54c | 135.5$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.17 | 269 | 65.4%176 W · 93 L | +48.9wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 54c | 127.14$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.15 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…5720backed Over | 40c | 116.45$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.82 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 53c | 109.78$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.14 | 293 | 62.5%183 W · 110 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x564b…1e19backed Over | 51c | 106.5$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.75 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Under | 49c | 105.22$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.66 | 117 | 63.2%74 W · 43 L | +9.7wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 57c | 104.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.93 | 336 | 58.3%196 W · 140 L | +32.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 49c | 102.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.51 | 452 | 53.1%240 W · 212 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc338…974ebacked Over | 44c | 96.84$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.89 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2102…087dbacked Under | 52c | 96.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.73 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…dde5backed Over | 24c | 83.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 87 | 20.7%18 W · 69 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 24c | 82.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 391 | 27.1%106 W · 285 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a98…3f93backed Over | 43c | 82.07$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 47cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2444…4252backed Over | 51c | 80.8$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.21 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…d590backed Over | 72c | 78.54$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…8b13backed Over | 48c | 77.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbebe…72e1backed Over | 45c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 59c | 67.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 313 | 55.6%174 W · 139 L | +24.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc435…e961backed Over | 67c | 57.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Under | 63c | 52.38$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfaa…28f7backed Over | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…0bb1backed Over | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…5856backed Over | 52c | 47.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 56c | 44.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb435…b97cbacked Over | 49c | 42.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c5…3d6fbacked Over | 53c | 36.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked Over | 54c | 36.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -5.9wins | -0.20per pick | 52cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Over | 44c | 34.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Under | 36c | 31.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 157 | 68.2%107 W · 50 L | +21.8wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 38c | 28.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1716…72aabacked Under | 58c | 25.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 54c | 25.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56d8…1ccebacked Over | 69c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed Over | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 185 | 57.8%107 W · 78 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Under | 45c | 23.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…f0bebacked Over | 51c | 21.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 68c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 292 | 45.2%132 W · 160 L | -24.0wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc46e…9ed8backed Over | 58c | 17.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +7.4wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- São Paulo FC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-1.5)São Paulo FC won
- Spread: São Paulo FC (-1.5)Botafogo FR won
- Spread: São Paulo FC (-2.5)Botafogo FR won
- São Paulo FC vs. Botafogo FR: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- São Paulo FC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 1.5Over won
- São Paulo FC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 3.5Under won
- São Paulo FC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.