NHL · resolved market
Utah vs. Kraken: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73c99c3936c6d85a9af86cfe83f4f15412336747ab5a9f71504e207e4263be7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,953
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,946
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,953 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2e65…4994backed Under | 56c | 7,319$4,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,103 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 44c | 3,426$1,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,920.4 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 44c | 2,485$1,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,391.66 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Under | 56c | 1,557$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$872 | 168 | 43.5%73 W · 95 L | -14.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 44c | 1,555$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$871.03 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71f9…16fbbacked Over | 46c | 1,300$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4951…3038backed Under | 55c | 635.13$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 55c | 625.5$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.66 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Over | 45c | 556.79$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.25 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 44c | 512.03$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.37 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 45c | 398.28$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.23 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 44c | 300$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 46c | 221.11$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.61 | 154 | 44.8%69 W · 85 L | -11.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x505a…bb61backed Over | 45c | 220.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.91 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 55c | 185$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.25 | 624 | 47.3%295 W · 329 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Over | 45c | 171$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.05 | 347 | 52.4%182 W · 165 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…a39dbacked Over | 45c | 171$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.05 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e0…457fbacked Over | 45c | 169$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.95 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Under | 55c | 148.15$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.48 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Over | 45c | 128.89$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.89 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 44c | 125.7$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.39 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 45c | 122.48$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.06 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2185…b40cbacked Over | 45c | 89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 44c | 88.39$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 44c | 72.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.88 | 211 | 55.5%117 W · 94 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08f1…705cbacked Over | 45c | 72$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…5925backed Over | 44c | 71.91$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.27 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked Under | 56c | 61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 55 | 69.1%38 W · 17 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Under | 56c | 61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Over | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 54c | 59.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -6.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked Over | 45c | 54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.57 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 45c | 51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 56c | 45.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 334 | 50.9%170 W · 164 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 56c | 45.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 188 | 53.2%100 W · 88 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 56c | 45.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 191 | 50.8%97 W · 94 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Under | 56c | 45.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 56c | 45.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6fb9backed Over | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 85 | 48.2%41 W · 44 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4f…63f3backed Over | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 46c | 43.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe964…6519backed Over | 45c | 38.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 44c | 32.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Over | 45c | 26.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked Under | 56c | 23.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +6.8wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Utah vs. Kraken: O/U 6.5this page
- Spread: Utah (-1.5)Utah won
- Utah vs. KrakenUtah won
- Utah vs. Kraken: O/U 5.5Over won
- Utah vs. Kraken: O/U 7.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.