Tennis · resolved market
Bucharest Open, Qualification: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Joel Schwaerzler
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7435d97cc737393ee2254d458d8e5c918d89b4975bc3336b0cf79db78f561193
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Daniel Merida Aguilarof Daniel Merida Aguilar, Joel Schwaerzler
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,089
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,398
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,089 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0c45…0ac6backed Joel Schwaerzler | 6c | 11,786$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.37 | 119 | 35.3%42 W · 77 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Joel Schwaerzler | 6c | 5,234$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.04 | 1,444 | 38%548 W · 896 L | -46.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Joel Schwaerzler | 6c | 3,163$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.64 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…934dbacked Joel Schwaerzler | 8c | 1,580$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.4 | 307 | 15.6%48 W · 259 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Joel Schwaerzler | 27c | 1,163$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.13 | 254 | 33.5%85 W · 169 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25d8…a71fbacked Joel Schwaerzler | 3c | 946.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 308 | 57.1%176 W · 132 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed19…83babacked Joel Schwaerzler | 27c | 822.3$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.83 | 847 | 36%305 W · 542 L | -35.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9694…b7adbacked Joel Schwaerzler | 36c | 416.66$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2,058 | 59.5%1,225 W · 833 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee4c…8572backed Joel Schwaerzler | 14c | 414.65$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.05 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Joel Schwaerzler | 5c | 356.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 1,130 | 27.9%315 W · 815 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…ca81backed Joel Schwaerzler | 5c | 349.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 217 | 20.3%44 W · 173 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Daniel Merida Aguilar | 65c | 299.91$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.97 | 287 | 47.7%137 W · 150 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Joel Schwaerzler | 35c | 284.07$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.42 | 280 | 38.2%107 W · 173 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b84…2f73backed Daniel Merida Aguilar | 80c | 247$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x627f…06dcbacked Joel Schwaerzler | 11c | 194.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Daniel Merida Aguilar | 62c | 194$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.72 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8df8…0db0backed Daniel Merida Aguilar | 79c | 176.23$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.01 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Joel Schwaerzler | 35c | 167$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.45 | 980 | 55.4%543 W · 437 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Daniel Merida Aguilar | 65c | 161.27$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.44 | 784 | 52.9%415 W · 369 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee9…1362backed Joel Schwaerzler | 12c | 157.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 725 | 42.6%309 W · 416 L | -20.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d8c…35b0backed Daniel Merida Aguilar | 65c | 150.62$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.72 | 224 | 65.2%146 W · 78 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Joel Schwaerzler | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 1,882 | 35.5%669 W · 1,213 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Daniel Merida Aguilar | 63c | 150$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 690 | 51.2%353 W · 337 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Daniel Merida Aguilar | 69c | 147.86$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.51 | 4,760 | 49.6%2,361 W · 2,399 L | +176.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…a830backed Joel Schwaerzler | 13c | 145.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 110 | 24.5%27 W · 83 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Joel Schwaerzler | 15c | 135.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Daniel Merida Aguilar | 79c | 124.24$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 486 | 52.1%253 W · 233 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed Joel Schwaerzler | 11c | 113.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 1,228 | 41.1%505 W · 723 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa625…90cdbacked Joel Schwaerzler | 25c | 91.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcc…edc9backed Daniel Merida Aguilar | 64c | 76.44$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…b875backed Daniel Merida Aguilar | 72c | 68.54$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 711 | 65.1%463 W · 248 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe10f…c59fbacked Daniel Merida Aguilar | 80c | 67.93$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 104 | 74%77 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x491e…d0e7backed Joel Schwaerzler | 18c | 64.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…2e3abacked Daniel Merida Aguilar | 79c | 62.49$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…31c3backed Daniel Merida Aguilar | 80c | 59.37$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58f2…692ebacked Joel Schwaerzler | 35c | 50.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 534 | 57.7%308 W · 226 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x700a…58a5backed Joel Schwaerzler | 38c | 50.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 180 | 20.6%37 W · 143 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c7…bb75backed Joel Schwaerzler | 28c | 48.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Joel Schwaerzler | 36c | 46.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Daniel Merida Aguilar | 78c | 35.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc0…8f18backed Joel Schwaerzler | 35c | 31.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Daniel Merida Aguilar | 65c | 30.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 2,561 | 63%1,613 W · 948 L | -10.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0c…a98fbacked Daniel Merida Aguilar | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2909…d8d9backed Daniel Merida Aguilar | 77c | 26.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x939f…1558backed Daniel Merida Aguilar | 80c | 26.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2098…0c0bbacked Daniel Merida Aguilar | 64c | 25.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…f87fbacked Daniel Merida Aguilar | 63c | 21.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Daniel Merida Aguilar | 64c | 15.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 580 | 67.8%393 W · 187 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1030…dd7abacked Daniel Merida Aguilar | 70c | 14.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 92 | 63%58 W · 34 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Daniel Merida Aguilar | 70c | 14.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 1,132 | 50.3%569 W · 563 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Daniel Merida Aguilar | 70c | 14.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 570 | 52.6%300 W · 270 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2273…7e01backed Daniel Merida Aguilar | 77c | 13.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.21 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.