NHL · resolved market
Ducks vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74384ade7733fbdf54f15e0eb5a71e69695edbb1887cdb9b35f7af69208bc0b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,522
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,522 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44d6…9858backed Under | 35c | 2,605$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.64 | 291 | 46.7%136 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672a…abb7backed Over | 65c | 2,308$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808.23 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 65c | 646.15$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.15 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…5b60backed Under | 37c | 418.88$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.87 | 642 | 42.2%271 W · 371 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Under | 35c | 368.63$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.39 | 156 | 51.3%80 W · 76 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2c…0efcbacked Over | 64c | 310$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe436…0423backed Under | 36c | 306$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x258b…4ae2backed Over | 64c | 265$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2019…6cf6backed Under | 36c | 256$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 63c | 248$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.76 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x678d…519fbacked Over | 64c | 229$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa00…acb0backed Under | 36c | 212$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbd…4e5bbacked Under | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4228…f351backed Over | 64c | 170$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94e6…6ac6backed Over | 64c | 157$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0342…3e9dbacked Under | 36c | 157$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 74c | 92$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 64c | 78.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over | 62c | 41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 913 | 34.1%311 W · 602 L | -27.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Under | 38c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Over | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ducks vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5this page
- Ducks vs. Maple LeafsMaple Leafs won
- Ducks vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5Over won
- Ducks vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Ducks (-1.5)Maple Leafs won
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)Maple Leafs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.