NHL · resolved market
Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae6284f07dd59c4615b42af415316be4591cec3843e19d61c2e0a98f828e0a82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Maple Leafsof Maple Leafs, Ducks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,002
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,002 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Maple Leafs | 32c | 1,132$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.9 | 177 | 50.8%90 W · 87 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Maple Leafs | 28c | 806.57$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.73 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Ducks | 69c | 720.99$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.48 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Maple Leafs | 31c | 593.42$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.34 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Ducks | 68c | 500$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Maple Leafs | 31c | 455$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.95 | 183 | 44.8%82 W · 101 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Ducks | 69c | 324.11$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.42 | 156 | 51.3%80 W · 76 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Ducks | 69c | 244.59$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.86 | 363 | 49%178 W · 185 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Maple Leafs | 31c | 228$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.47 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Ducks | 68c | 196.38$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.54 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Maple Leafs | 30c | 98.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.45 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd71…6714backed Ducks | 71c | 84.63$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Ducks | 70c | 71.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d38…71efbacked Maple Leafs | 24c | 61.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Ducks | 70c | 49.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.43 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Maple Leafs | 29c | 46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Ducks | 76c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 272 | 50%136 W · 136 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2db8…e042backed Ducks | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Maple Leafs | 53c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)this page
- Ducks vs. Maple LeafsMaple Leafs won
- Ducks vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5Over won
- Ducks vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5Over won
- Ducks vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Ducks (-1.5)Maple Leafs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.