NHL · resolved market
Ducks vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78396158d8ba5251e1143f87be74387075264b737894d448822e354d183aa821
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,591
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,591 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x332a…c9a2backed Over | 67c | 682.55$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.24 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 33c | 490$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.7 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6a…089bbacked Under | 68c | 470.42$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.89 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Over | 33c | 429.13$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.66 | 183 | 44.8%82 W · 101 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Under | 67c | 331.84$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.67 | 156 | 51.3%80 W · 76 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x821b…c3b3backed Over | 32c | 293$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1048…208abacked Over | 32c | 287$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 22cpaid | +102.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa55e…853bbacked Under | 68c | 282$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4289…484dbacked Under | 68c | 276$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x804e…64fabacked Under | 68c | 261$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x696c…cddfbacked Under | 68c | 258$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd40e…4194backed Over | 32c | 248$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe259…cbb7backed Under | 68c | 236$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4d…5ba9backed Over | 32c | 230$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3521…104dbacked Under | 68c | 229$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…2460backed Over | 32c | 224$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0790backed Over | 32c | 221$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +136.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Over | 33c | 215$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.26 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec52…7ca1backed Over | 32c | 197$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e54…178dbacked Under | 68c | 191$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 67c | 185.12$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.03 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x440f…b6f0backed Over | 32c | 182$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf4…55f4backed Under | 68c | 163$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce09…a251backed Over | 32c | 162.75$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.67 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 40cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e37…cfbdbacked Over | 32c | 158.34$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5826…3b73backed Over | 32c | 158$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83b0…687ebacked Over | 32c | 149.33$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.54 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x436b…8abfbacked Under | 68c | 144$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 67c | 120.33$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.67 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9423…bba6backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 33c | 55.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b42…62afbacked Under | 33c | 48.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2562…72a9backed Under | 69c | 36.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 33c | 34.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 378 | 57.4%217 W · 161 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 60c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ducks vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 7.5this page
- Ducks vs. Maple LeafsMaple Leafs won
- Ducks vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5Over won
- Ducks vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Ducks (-1.5)Maple Leafs won
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)Maple Leafs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.