NHL · resolved market
Ducks vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08b56bf2a0199a88c23325f5cb9fcd3f76c023534a57249bc4ef50673e72d3ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,526
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,526 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Under | 47c | 5,865$2,754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,754.13 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Over | 53c | 5,134$2,721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,412.98 | 331 | 51.7%171 W · 160 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…186dbacked Under | 49c | 4,110$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8698…e4a2backed Under | 48c | 3,844$1,845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,845.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7feb…9383backed Over | 52c | 3,844$1,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,845.12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…0e84backed Under | 48c | 2,509$1,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,202.27 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 52c | 2,066$1,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,001.61 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 51c | 1,832$934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897.73 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdec6…1d8ebacked Under | 47c | 1,366$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…a339backed Over | 52c | 1,176$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.71 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ff…0d1dbacked Over | 53c | 1,077$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.5 | 271 | 50.2%136 W · 135 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over | 54c | 1,072$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.51 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Over | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…85d0backed Under | 47c | 891.59$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.05 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 53c | 758.93$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.92 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c0…9740backed Under | 49c | 734.38$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.86 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 46c | 651.21$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.56 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 53c | 604$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.88 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Over | 52c | 358.2$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.55 | 156 | 51.3%80 W · 76 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Over | 55c | 222$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.9 | 206 | 55.3%114 W · 92 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 53c | 207.94$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.94 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 45c | 199$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.55 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 54c | 190$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.4 | 624 | 47.3%295 W · 329 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed Over | 53c | 188.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.67 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 285 | 42.8%122 W · 163 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x838a…0815backed Under | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 52c | 97.95$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.1 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f3…25dfbacked Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +6.5wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd3…394cbacked Under | 48c | 96.15$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…e74fbacked Under | 47c | 78.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 53c | 71$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.37 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 53c | 57.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 355 | 53%188 W · 167 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Over | 52c | 46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafcd…8014backed Over | 52c | 42.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4c…394abacked Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 63c | 39.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ddb…4939backed Over | 54c | 37.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 52c | 34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 159 | 44.7%71 W · 88 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 52c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3de…fe0ebacked Over | 52c | 20.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ducks vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5this page
- Ducks vs. Maple LeafsMaple Leafs won
- Ducks vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5Over won
- Ducks vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Ducks (-1.5)Maple Leafs won
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)Maple Leafs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.