NHL · resolved market
Spread: Ducks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f083841b9acae3da596ee4e425a206cfc5bf262628f05c9960bc9a007e9adef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Maple Leafsof Ducks, Maple Leafs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,563
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,563 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2002…de36backed Maple Leafs | 71c | 1,748$1,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.55 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Ducks | 29c | 1,483$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.15 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Ducks | 31c | 660$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.07 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Maple Leafs | 69c | 187.32$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.07 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Maple Leafs | 69c | 136.55$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.23 | 156 | 51.3%80 W · 76 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…6573backed Ducks | 31c | 100.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 210 | 42.4%89 W · 121 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Ducks | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Maple Leafs | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Maple Leafs | 69c | 99.97$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c08…af98backed Ducks | 31c | 80.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 337 | 56.4%190 W · 147 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0cf…6639backed Maple Leafs | 71c | 73$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b3…091cbacked Ducks | 31c | 73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Maple Leafs | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Maple Leafs | 69c | 57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Maple Leafs | 70c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 913 | 34.1%311 W · 602 L | -27.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed Maple Leafs | 71c | 18.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Maple Leafs | 70c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Maple Leafs | 69c | 16.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Ducks (-1.5)this page
- Ducks vs. Maple LeafsMaple Leafs won
- Ducks vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5Over won
- Ducks vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5Over won
- Ducks vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)Maple Leafs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.