Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. Michigan Wolverines
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x744f12c2cc1a25000e8c689b9d229435310f91c8941f72c5136659fb81669c61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Michigan Wolverinesof Gonzaga Bulldogs, Michigan Wolverines
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $157,345
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $158,253
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $157,345 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb744…5210backed Michigan Wolverines | 40c | 58,699$23,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,219.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +145.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Gonzaga Bulldogs | 60c | 43,974$26,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,233.37 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Gonzaga Bulldogs | 60c | 32,734$19,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,640.4 | 160 | 53.8%86 W · 74 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Gonzaga Bulldogs | 15c | 20,897$3,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,134.35 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Michigan Wolverines | 42c | 8,688$3,632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,055.53 | 746 | 49.2%367 W · 379 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Gonzaga Bulldogs | 60c | 8,339$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Gonzaga Bulldogs | 58c | 6,777$3,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,950.44 | 285 | 39.6%113 W · 172 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Michigan Wolverines | 40c | 5,959$2,405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,553.23 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Michigan Wolverines | 41c | 5,000$2,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,950 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca6…9a97backed Michigan Wolverines | 40c | 5,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,000 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Michigan Wolverines | 40c | 4,000$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,400 | 906 | 45.4%411 W · 495 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Michigan Wolverines | 41c | 3,420$1,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,031.92 | 128 | 53.1%68 W · 60 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed Gonzaga Bulldogs | 59c | 2,725$1,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,607.75 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fa…44e5backed Michigan Wolverines | 43c | 2,400$1,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,368 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Michigan Wolverines | 62c | 2,370$1,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.58 | 334 | 38.9%130 W · 204 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Michigan Wolverines | 42c | 2,000$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,159.99 | 226 | 45.6%103 W · 123 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Gonzaga Bulldogs | 59c | 1,729$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 155 | 57.4%89 W · 66 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Gonzaga Bulldogs | 16c | 1,530$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.93 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Gonzaga Bulldogs | 60c | 1,491$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.25 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76fc…e0bdbacked Michigan Wolverines | 41c | 1,449$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$861.87 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Gonzaga Bulldogs | 1c | 1,330$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c10…a305backed Michigan Wolverines | 40c | 1,228$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.59 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Michigan Wolverines | 41c | 995.4$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.29 | 163 | 41.7%68 W · 95 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Michigan Wolverines | 41c | 891.92$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.23 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Michigan Wolverines | 41c | 832.33$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.93 | 490 | 43.1%211 W · 279 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82b5…1d1dbacked Gonzaga Bulldogs | 53c | 812.56$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…eeaebacked Michigan Wolverines | 40c | 800$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 1,227 | 27.8%341 W · 886 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Gonzaga Bulldogs | 26c | 699.99$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Michigan Wolverines | 42c | 645.36$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.36 | 176 | 50.6%89 W · 87 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…5d9ebacked Gonzaga Bulldogs | 8c | 599.44$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf909…2b17backed Michigan Wolverines | 42c | 595.24$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Gonzaga Bulldogs | 58c | 550$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319 | 170 | 51.2%87 W · 83 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Gonzaga Bulldogs | 57c | 444$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.08 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.23per pick | 47cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Michigan Wolverines | 45c | 411.11$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.87 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Gonzaga Bulldogs | 59c | 400$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236 | 415 | 54.2%225 W · 190 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Michigan Wolverines | 45c | 359.12$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.61 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Gonzaga Bulldogs | 57c | 351$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.07 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked Michigan Wolverines | 43c | 350$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.5 | 226 | 40.7%92 W · 134 L | -14.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…f4f4backed Gonzaga Bulldogs | 7c | 342.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Michigan Wolverines | 42c | 256.67$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.2 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Michigan Wolverines | 42c | 245$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143 | 429 | 34.3%147 W · 282 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Michigan Wolverines | 42c | 201.8$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.04 | 1,633 | 47.3%773 W · 860 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Michigan Wolverines | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba1…b0b6backed Michigan Wolverines | 45c | 195$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.25 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbde…a758backed Michigan Wolverines | 39c | 180$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.8 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50bb…9aa6backed Gonzaga Bulldogs | 58c | 175$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Michigan Wolverines | 43c | 141.98$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.98 | 246 | 49.6%122 W · 124 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Michigan Wolverines | 41c | 140$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.6 | 107 | 48.6%52 W · 55 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecf4…9979backed Gonzaga Bulldogs | 44c | 136.07$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe08…10ebbacked Michigan Wolverines | 43c | 135.01$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.96 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f02…7104backed Michigan Wolverines | 43c | 132.56$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +189.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Michigan Wolverines | 41c | 128.17$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.99 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe77f…e59abacked Gonzaga Bulldogs | 59c | 126.15$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.04 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -7.0wins | -0.28per pick | 52cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Michigan Wolverines | 40c | 119$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.4 | 820 | 48.2%395 W · 425 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Michigan Wolverines | 73c | 118.27$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 456 | 44.5%203 W · 253 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Michigan Wolverines | 42c | 117$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.18 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f9…edbfbacked Gonzaga Bulldogs | 12c | 110.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Gonzaga Bulldogs | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 76 | 26.3%20 W · 56 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Michigan Wolverines | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dca…a7acbacked Gonzaga Bulldogs | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 252 | 54.8%138 W · 114 L | -15.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Gonzaga Bulldogs | 57c | 89.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.29 | 198 | 51.5%102 W · 96 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Michigan Wolverines | 41c | 88$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.92 | 349 | 47.9%167 W · 182 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Gonzaga Bulldogs | 15c | 87.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 643 | 22.9%147 W · 496 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1f…0b36backed Michigan Wolverines | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +206%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Michigan Wolverines | 35c | 71.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.42 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | +6.4wins | +0.12per pick | 20cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcba8…11a2backed Gonzaga Bulldogs | 58c | 71.25$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a52…9ad6backed Gonzaga Bulldogs | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8b…b6f1backed Michigan Wolverines | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Michigan Wolverines | 41c | 53.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Michigan Wolverines | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 1,487 | 43%639 W · 848 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d57…1238backed Gonzaga Bulldogs | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…0329backed Gonzaga Bulldogs | 37c | 40.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…1e06backed Michigan Wolverines | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb317…1893backed Gonzaga Bulldogs | 60c | 33.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9452…b685backed Gonzaga Bulldogs | 58c | 26.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Gonzaga Bulldogs | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 244 | 32%78 W · 166 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8639…fb86backed Gonzaga Bulldogs | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. Michigan Wolverinesthis page
- Spread: Gonzaga Bulldogs (-2.5)Michigan Wolverines won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.