Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Riasne by May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74848baa73b5e0f8c98c9fc13340e7486859e5a70f5075dfc9baf5b1f127b8b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,522
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,429
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,522 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x55c0…6c7bbacked No | 0c | 9,064$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.94 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d2…7048backed No | 1c | 2,649$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc4…be57backed No | 0c | 2,523$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e0…4eb7backed Yes | 26c | 1,019$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.81 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked No | 76c | 605.19$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.93 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 76c | 400$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 40c | 349.99$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.74 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5709…22c3backed Yes | 34c | 291.17$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.6 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29ce…e196backed No | 29c | 266.15$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7930…b208backed No | 18c | 254.43$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.7wins | +0.28per pick | 33cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 75c | 241.44$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf853…21d0backed No | 16c | 225.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.82 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…d7edbacked No | 73c | 200.45$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.38 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b92…1761backed Yes | 75c | 150.9$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.47 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7727…15a4backed Yes | 65c | 146.4$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.91 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +5.7wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 24c | 120.9$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.88 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…1c95backed No | 77c | 110.39$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 13c | 106.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5144…37c9backed No | 66c | 95.22$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.84 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +164.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 26c | 92.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.24 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ec…ed05backed No | 21c | 91.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeffa…94b4backed No | 15c | 87.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 79c | 80$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked No | 68c | 79.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 32c | 74.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.94 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 19c | 74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +121.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce83…5b97backed No | 67c | 69.81$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.86 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…9ef8backed No | 78c | 64.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa64…7e3dbacked No | 20c | 64.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7b…332dbacked Yes | 33c | 61.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 71c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…9e2bbacked No | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.26per pick | 53cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 38c | 52.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 70c | 51.19$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked Yes | 34c | 49.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.54 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…450bbacked Yes | 38c | 48.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.06 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b4e…93a3backed Yes | 72c | 47.97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x302e…88ccbacked No | 79c | 47$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +45%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…1893backed Yes | 76c | 43.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +6.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 75c | 40.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -9.6wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…16e9backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd054…7e38backed No | 74c | 38.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…6d52backed Yes | 33c | 33.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 32cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 68c | 27.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…9190backed Yes | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x328b…fa07backed No | 72c | 22.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…b653backed No | 75c | 21.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +400%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…5cf7backed No | 77c | 19.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b22…3a92backed Yes | 69c | 15.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 71c | 14.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 68cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.