Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74c13c15dc1713923a1bc4b0ab08c1aa9a16f051abf512b55344f5ac27199ddf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,161
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,655
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,161 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 25c | 425.5$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.31 | 425 | 36.7%156 W · 269 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 5c | 263.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 2,280 | 14.7%336 W · 1,944 L | +51.5wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a1…ab16backed No | 79c | 233.65$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.65 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 27c | 221$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.67 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 218$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.63 | 3,139 | 49.6%1,558 W · 1,581 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 149.21$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad9…7e66backed Yes | 22c | 146.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…6673backed Yes | 22c | 145.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 153 | 39.2%60 W · 93 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 73c | 134$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.79 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 128$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 4,313 | 53.6%2,311 W · 2,002 L | +158.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 74c | 106$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 97.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 27c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 73$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed No | 74c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 30c | 58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…d97fbacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 77c | 35.93$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 78c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 1,004 | 70.9%712 W · 292 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 74c | 24.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 74c | 23.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 78c | 21.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 706 | 75.5%533 W · 173 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 74c | 20.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3e…5a86backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 17.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 71c | 16.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d66…a545backed No | 77c | 16.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 114 | 69.3%79 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on July 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.