Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf1996e57d6cf41988142e8c5c95bd64d515cb81d8c937590ed515e1ea3dd6e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,753
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,083
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,753 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked Yes | 6c | 381.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 64c | 306.68$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.25 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…6673backed Yes | 42c | 230$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.6 | 150 | 39.3%59 W · 91 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 56c | 215.57$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.88 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf23…3f54backed Yes | 36c | 210.44$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.76 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 46c | 193.33$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.32 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a1…ab16backed Yes | 55c | 179.71$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.46 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8c…c89cbacked Yes | 18c | 155$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 58c | 134.83$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.13 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 8c | 132.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 53c | 99.24$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.47 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 96$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 75.41$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 67.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 50c | 65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 52c | 51.23$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 47.57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…1c6ebacked No | 46c | 43.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad9…7e66backed Yes | 33c | 37.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 69c | 34.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 47c | 33.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 53c | 33.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc176…5d01backed No | 58c | 30.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 71c | 29.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 61c | 27.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…6b73backed No | 61c | 25.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 52c | 22.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 62c | 21.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…871ebacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 19.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 59c | 18.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on July 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.