Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f2767faff8fb46dc0b6761d1de7fa0aaa9c43dad31834aff3ac2eb9f870031f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,209
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,188
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,209 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 24c | 480$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.26 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 419.95$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.09 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 310.36$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.36 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a1…ab16backed No | 77c | 282.35$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.48 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 42c | 223.82$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.22 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 31c | 201.91$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.08 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 16c | 201.53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.08 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 7c | 178.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 66c | 155.13$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.72 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 25c | 146.42$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.12 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 78c | 130.53$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.87 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…6673backed Yes | 73c | 127.04$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.43 | 150 | 39.3%59 W · 91 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 120$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.81 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 20c | 105.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.24 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 99.33$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.48 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 80c | 92.5$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8c…c89cbacked Yes | 31c | 90$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.9 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 14c | 84.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.69 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 82.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.18 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 22c | 80.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.87 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 80$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.11 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…d97fbacked No | 78c | 80$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed No | 78c | 80$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 78c | 76.08$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.56 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 79c | 76$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.72 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…e5d4backed No | 79c | 76$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.72 | 89 | 76.4%68 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 26c | 59.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.94 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 78c | 57.19$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 78c | 52.49$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 73c | 48.07$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 80c | 48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 77c | 47.58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.61 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 57c | 43.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 27c | 41.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.61 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 30c | 41.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 55c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 74c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc176…5d01backed No | 78c | 24.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6199…ece4backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 35 | 82.9%29 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0527…b550backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e86…f73bbacked No | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 80c | 13.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 76c | 13.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.