Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74eda83b54c60dc2444b5e4374d72828462c61e565256c750b3966c2a318c20f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,384
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,115
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,384 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,092$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 19c | 256.94$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.67 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 22c | 169.91$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes | 29c | 142.46$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 129.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb556…b5e5backed Yes | 23c | 128.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bd…e555backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 11c | 111.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 73c | 108.09$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 108$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.41 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed Yes | 11c | 101.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 26c | 96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdac…b662backed Yes | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 76$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 69.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 57.43$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 53.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 38c | 52.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked Yes | 20c | 51.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked Yes | 28c | 50.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 74c | 49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 73c | 46.03$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb17…ee85backed Yes | 23c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 34.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x036d…e888backed No | 77c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 78 | 71.8%56 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 75c | 30.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 54c | 29.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 27.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed No | 72c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 75c | 23.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 67c | 20.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9928…bfa0backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 72c | 18.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 79c | 18.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09e7…1fffbacked No | 78c | 14.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.21 | 94 | 39.4%37 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46fc…8f78backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.