AI · resolved market
Will Apple launch an AirTag on September 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7529bcd11ee14b975288487e201554ffa641fe63dc2a99544b0c5924141f72dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,008
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,571
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,008 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe504…70efbacked Yes | 4c | 4,600$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e06…a8b7backed Yes | 5c | 1,800$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 55c | 685.43$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.26 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f0…6a90backed No | 55c | 411.48$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 31c | 365.81$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.01 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked No | 61c | 268.53$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.48 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed Yes | 70c | 265$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.8 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…2f88backed No | 47c | 252.46$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeae7…8e9ebacked Yes | 42c | 239.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x469a…c784backed Yes | 36c | 190$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes | 56c | 182.22$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.65 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -65%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 43c | 174.81$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.74 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x924a…8af5backed No | 24c | 169.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.63 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c59…d079backed Yes | 62c | 151.76$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c5…a146backed Yes | 58c | 125.27$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cf…0569backed Yes | 45c | 122.01$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6f…a2bcbacked No | 24c | 117.82$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x698f…be6cbacked Yes | 45c | 111.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9b…5662backed Yes | 45c | 104.9$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 54c | 104$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.34 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…16a6backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…f7fcbacked Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4278…9343backed Yes | 51c | 98.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 51c | 83.88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.73 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 51c | 71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 15c | 70.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27ee…a1debacked Yes | 46c | 54.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3673…ce22backed No | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad73…e1afbacked Yes | 54c | 46.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0a…a3b9backed Yes | 48c | 41.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…c2b5backed Yes | 54c | 36.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa52c…ef80backed Yes | 41c | 29.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbba…d41ebacked No | 73c | 27.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ff…e8cfbacked No | 55c | 19.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +69%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 72c | 19.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47ac…2c65backed No | 58c | 17.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb3…7f6bbacked No | 77c | 16.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Apple launch an AirTag on September 9?this page
- Will Apple launch a Glasses/Headset on September 9?No won
- Will Apple launch a HomePod on September 9?No won
- Will Apple launch a Studio Display on September 9?No won
- Will Apple launch a new Apple TV on September 9?No won
- Will Apple launch an iPhone Air on September 9?Yes won
- Will Apple launch another MacBook on September 9?No won
- Will Apple launch another iPad on September 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.