TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 4?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,531
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,822

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,531 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3500…f012backed Yes47c1,714$807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$807.47825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-39.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ad1…3556backed Yes42c636.03$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.661030%3 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-27.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes48c554.78$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.631,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No51c536.09$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.695,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No54c516.25$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.792,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No56c508.27$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.664,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes12c500.98$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.984,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes59c432.2$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.45,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80e1…47a8backed No49c389.97$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.8324262.4%151 W · 91 L+0.7wins0.00per pick62cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc89f…14a9backed Yes54c365.72$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.318650.5%94 W · 92 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x652d…46b3backed No19c349.37$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.8161820.7%128 W · 490 L+36.9wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd654…2efebacked Yes67c348.47$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.4940461.4%248 W · 156 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x331d…8846backed No20c332.28$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.9528244%124 W · 158 L+38.6wins+0.14per pick30cpaid+29.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes48c330.34$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.322,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No54c317.32$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.661,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No58c308.17$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.523,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9030…4a23backed Yes50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1507536%27 W · 48 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid+22.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes47c300$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1411,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No51c281$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.295,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3fa…4531backed Yes46c250.12$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.8531936.1%115 W · 204 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf677…2efebacked Yes48c249.45$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1203537.1%13 W · 22 L-7.3wins-0.21per pick58cpaid-42.2%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x9cb7…d9b8backed No63c225.58$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.267223.6%17 W · 55 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-44.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7735…4740backed Yes46c217.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10025933.6%87 W · 172 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fb2…d640backed No52c211.83$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.864961.2%30 W · 19 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+15.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x321e…b542backed Yes45c210.94$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.921050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No64c201.59$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.826,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes24c192.01$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.34,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes65c191.78$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.326,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No27c169.24$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.2995852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No58c143.38$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.8967158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed Yes43c143.29$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.31,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No50c138.51$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.192,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No45c138.3$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.078,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No50c129.97$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.551,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae5f…bc30backed No22c128.61$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.019339.8%37 W · 56 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed No23c124.32$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.711,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4149…8147backed No35c116.5$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.958444%37 W · 47 L+7.6wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+15.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa0d8…56bbbacked No37c115.15$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.6114752.4%77 W · 70 L+11.7wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+15.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No35c113.18$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.0312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x35fc…ac54backed No24c111.51$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.2724751.8%128 W · 119 L+24.7wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No52c110$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.82,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes46c109.87$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.141,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes48c108.01$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes53c108$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.41,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed Yes49c108$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.6794552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x104d…5abbbacked No20c107.21$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.263336.4%12 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-18.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd71…1281backed No21c104.76$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.0953951.9%280 W · 259 L+54.4wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xdab3…79b1backed No19c100.78$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.428347%39 W · 44 L+6.5wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+1.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No55c99.73$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.944,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38c7…1c86backed No21c93.7$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.4511844.1%52 W · 66 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf9d6…eb5cbacked No19c92.93$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.187949.4%39 W · 40 L+6.7wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a8e…05a4backed No20c92.52$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.243050.2%216 W · 214 L+21.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe04…a198backed Yes54c90.9$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.81566.7%10 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes53c86.77$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.892,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x521f…80cdbacked No43c86.74$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.862176.2%16 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick67cpaid+13.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No54c81$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.261,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1440…7712backed Yes44c80$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.29035.6%32 W · 58 L-0.4wins0.00per pick36cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc9e…251fbacked No22c79.91$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.659960.6%60 W · 39 L+16.0wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+42.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No58c77.58$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.589,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8297…d600backed Yes57c77.58$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1713448.5%65 W · 69 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No39c77.48$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.972,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec34…b109backed No39c76$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.083240.6%13 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2184…d271backed No59c75.38$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.913644.4%16 W · 20 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-15.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No44c72.24$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.241,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb53…fde7backed Yes45c71$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0725954.1%140 W · 119 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x355d…1052backed No59c69.11$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.341353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Yes57c68.54$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.171,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes36c67$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1228344.5%126 W · 157 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes46c64.86$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.97,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No53c64.3$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.224,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No36c64.1$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.832,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No49c60.79$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.229,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4149…44c4backed Yes47c59.48$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.215449.4%76 W · 78 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes51c58.49$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb57e…0b91backed No44c58$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.446457.5%267 W · 197 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed Yes77c57.89$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5886847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xab5e…47f6backed No39c55.81$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.045935.6%21 W · 38 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd615…ae32backed Yes66c55$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3533962.8%213 W · 126 L+40.8wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+17.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked No37c53.24$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.857948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bbc…e05dbacked Yes50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2517255.2%95 W · 77 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0ea…3ce8backed No54c48.61$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.363655.6%20 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No53c47.96$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.673,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No35c47.67$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.142,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No36c47$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.971,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes54c46.79$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.082,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x55bc…52d8backed Yes46c44.87$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.646839.7%27 W · 41 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No24c44.65$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.847,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x9cef…8fa3backed No24c43.74$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.3639346.6%183 W · 210 L+29.9wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No53c42.27$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes43c42.18$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.228,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes48c41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6846148.8%225 W · 236 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff18…a5fbbacked Yes61c40.83$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.977835.9%28 W · 50 L-7.9wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-30.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes77c39.94$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.782,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes49c39.46$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3352828%148 W · 380 L-57.1wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xdb33…19d9backed Yes51c38.94$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206437.5%24 W · 40 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No46c38.5$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.743563.9%278 W · 157 L+13.6wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x73a8…a8b7backed Yes78c36.63$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.514161%86 W · 55 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed No57c35.21$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.281,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No45c35$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2544366.1%293 W · 150 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.