Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7529de1ce23a8aba1d4ee1ebc462dcf6afef25f801ffe1f13303a56e8042dc19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,531
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,822
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,531 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3500…f012backed Yes | 47c | 1,714$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.47 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad1…3556backed Yes | 42c | 636.03$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.66 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 48c | 554.78$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.63 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 51c | 536.09$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.69 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 54c | 516.25$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.79 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 56c | 508.27$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.66 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 12c | 500.98$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.98 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 59c | 432.2$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.4 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 49c | 389.97$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.83 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 54c | 365.72$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.3 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 19c | 349.37$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.81 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked Yes | 67c | 348.47$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.49 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 20c | 332.28$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.95 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 48c | 330.34$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.32 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 54c | 317.32$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.66 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 58c | 308.17$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.52 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Yes | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 51c | 281$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.29 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 46c | 250.12$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.85 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf677…2efebacked Yes | 48c | 249.45$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -7.3wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb7…d9b8backed No | 63c | 225.58$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.26 | 72 | 23.6%17 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 46c | 217.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb2…d640backed No | 52c | 211.83$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.86 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x321e…b542backed Yes | 45c | 210.94$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.92 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 201.59$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.82 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 24c | 192.01$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 65c | 191.78$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.32 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 27c | 169.24$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.29 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 58c | 143.38$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.89 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 43c | 143.29$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.3 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 50c | 138.51$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.19 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 45c | 138.3$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.07 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 50c | 129.97$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.55 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae5f…bc30backed No | 22c | 128.61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.01 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 23c | 124.32$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.71 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…8147backed No | 35c | 116.5$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.95 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d8…56bbbacked No | 37c | 115.15$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.61 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 113.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.03 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 24c | 111.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.27 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 52c | 110$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 46c | 109.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.14 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 48c | 108.01$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 53c | 108$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 49c | 108$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.67 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x104d…5abbbacked No | 20c | 107.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.26 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 21c | 104.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.09 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…79b1backed No | 19c | 100.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.42 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 55c | 99.73$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.94 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed No | 21c | 93.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.45 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…eb5cbacked No | 19c | 92.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.18 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 20c | 92.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.2 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe04…a198backed Yes | 54c | 90.9$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 53c | 86.77$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.89 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x521f…80cdbacked No | 43c | 86.74$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.86 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 54c | 81$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1440…7712backed Yes | 44c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked No | 22c | 79.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.65 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 58c | 77.58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.58 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8297…d600backed Yes | 57c | 77.58$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.17 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 39c | 77.48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.97 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec34…b109backed No | 39c | 76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.08 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2184…d271backed No | 59c | 75.38$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 44c | 72.24$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.24 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed Yes | 45c | 71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355d…1052backed No | 59c | 69.11$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 57c | 68.54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 36c | 67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 46c | 64.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 53c | 64.3$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 36c | 64.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.83 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 60.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 47c | 59.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 51c | 58.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 44c | 58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 77c | 57.89$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.58 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab5e…47f6backed No | 39c | 55.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 66c | 55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 37c | 53.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…3ce8backed No | 54c | 48.61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 53c | 47.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 35c | 47.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 36c | 47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 54c | 46.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55bc…52d8backed Yes | 46c | 44.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 24c | 44.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 24c | 43.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.36 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 53c | 42.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 43c | 42.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 48c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…a5fbbacked Yes | 61c | 40.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 77c | 39.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 49c | 39.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…19d9backed Yes | 51c | 38.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 46c | 38.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…a8b7backed Yes | 78c | 36.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 57c | 35.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 45c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.