Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7531b88190349cca3123b0b5d0ca1ac8b24327201b814178c3e78f2cfd3206b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,813
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,932
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,813 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 55c | 276.28$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.83 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 42c | 164.57$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.58 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 27c | 127.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 42c | 114.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 59c | 100.03$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.63 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 58c | 91.51$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.02 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 87.45$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 37c | 85.6$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.65 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 49c | 82.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 72c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 77c | 72.22$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.97 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 71.87$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 48c | 62.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5d…2a43backed Yes | 69c | 54.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…2639backed Yes | 65c | 53.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 53.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 60c | 52.68$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 75c | 52.23$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 57c | 51.31$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…fefcbacked Yes | 64c | 46.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 50c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 28c | 36.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 60c | 34.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed Yes | 44c | 31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 54c | 30.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 40c | 30.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed Yes | 46c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 52c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 46c | 24.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x202e…619cbacked Yes | 63c | 24.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 43c | 23.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 49c | 22.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8792…4174backed No | 52c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 56c | 20.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 51c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 53c | 20.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 59c | 20.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x965b…e530backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 57 | 70.2%40 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…f2dfbacked Yes | 55c | 19.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 54c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 65c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x36e8…f207backed No | 73c | 13.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.