Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Solana reach $120 in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75581dcaeb45ad869f79b5d0304159f063a53bd37e36ec545779e1ea9096a7d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $197,606
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $169,459
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $197,606 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 1c | 21,362$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x104a…5b05backed Yes | 6c | 20,866$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d1…bc55backed Yes | 9c | 10,000$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.99 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e39…8cbfbacked Yes | 0c | 9,528$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 74 | 0%0 W · 74 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…ab1ebacked Yes | 6c | 8,058$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 7,996$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 149 | 0.7%1 W · 148 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e64…fc32backed Yes | 8c | 6,007$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18d4…1d3abacked Yes | 5c | 5,000$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.46 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed Yes | 4c | 3,581$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.53 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 3,418$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.71 | 292 | 2.1%6 W · 286 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ef…c56abacked Yes | 13c | 3,373$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe004…cce7backed Yes | 1c | 3,333$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,190$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.31 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb42c…c27bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,164$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.23 | 99 | 4%4 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…0ff2backed Yes | 3c | 1,833$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.59 | 104 | 3.8%4 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 4c | 1,825$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.02 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e3…8ebfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,741$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…e197backed Yes | 5c | 1,719$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7b…e79fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,600$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.53 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0578…e1fbbacked Yes | 2c | 1,320$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc31f…91b0backed Yes | 8c | 1,200$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b8…cd3ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,105$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf37a…2171backed Yes | 4c | 1,071$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.13 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa55f…4f15backed Yes | 10c | 994.17$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.53 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7e…ced4backed Yes | 6c | 900.64$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38b1…01e5backed Yes | 5c | 840.6$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88a1…a17bbacked Yes | 3c | 749.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -66%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7106…1caabacked Yes | 2c | 675.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3e…5d9dbacked Yes | 5c | 547.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f71…912dbacked Yes | 9c | 518.39$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.21 | 69 | 5.8%4 W · 65 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x222a…d5afbacked Yes | 6c | 514.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbf…b37ebacked Yes | 5c | 458.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Yes | 7c | 410$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6563…9fc3backed Yes | 14c | 347.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bf…e97bbacked Yes | 5c | 327.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1dd…a272backed Yes | 12c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 117 | 26.5%31 W · 86 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…feb0backed Yes | 6c | 199.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 18cpaid | +83%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2b…c35dbacked Yes | 8c | 198.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85eb…d068backed Yes | 9c | 173.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb84…5685backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16de…7d45backed Yes | 10c | 122.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Solana reach $120 in May?this page
- Will Solana dip to $40 in May?No won
- Will Solana dip to $50 in May?No won
- Will Solana dip to $70 in May?No won
- Will Solana dip to $80 in May?Yes won
- Will Solana reach $100 in May?No won
- Will Solana reach $110 in May?No won
- Will Solana reach $140 in May?No won
- Will Solana reach $150 in May?No won
- Will Solana reach $160 in May?No won
- Will Solana reach $90 in May?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.