Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Solana dip to $50 in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd36090f5f6a8061674f3fb02a5e6d35f934798c28dd277da0b2effa6d71a3cea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $222,248
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $245,263
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $222,248 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f62…2ce6backed Yes | 1c | 60,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 103 | 13.6%14 W · 89 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d54…e1f8backed Yes | 1c | 11,153$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +1,064.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb652…6b31backed Yes | 1c | 6,855$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e8…9cbebacked Yes | 2c | 6,442$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.22 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7558…2d70backed Yes | 2c | 5,576$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.1 | 110 | 5.5%6 W · 104 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda6b…a403backed Yes | 1c | 5,253$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.53 | 62 | 0%0 W · 62 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 3,868$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.49 | 292 | 2.1%6 W · 286 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6388…bf12backed Yes | 2c | 3,268$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.36 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf9…1cc3backed Yes | 1c | 3,041$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 2,489$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 149 | 0.7%1 W · 148 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe42e…017bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,070$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…50c7backed Yes | 2c | 1,706$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 1,557$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed Yes | 1c | 1,250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed Yes | 2c | 1,106$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…0ff2backed Yes | 1c | 1,102$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 104 | 3.8%4 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb42c…c27bbacked Yes | 1c | 965.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 99 | 4%4 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 940$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Solana dip to $50 in May?this page
- Will Solana dip to $40 in May?No won
- Will Solana dip to $70 in May?No won
- Will Solana dip to $80 in May?Yes won
- Will Solana reach $100 in May?No won
- Will Solana reach $110 in May?No won
- Will Solana reach $120 in May?No won
- Will Solana reach $140 in May?No won
- Will Solana reach $150 in May?No won
- Will Solana reach $160 in May?No won
- Will Solana reach $90 in May?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.