TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Padres vs. Reds

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Redsof Padres, Reds
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$97,002
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$100,343

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,002 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9708…925bbacked Reds45c40,096$18,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,905.3916643.4%72 W · 94 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x245b…00c5backed Padres54c35,000$19,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,049.992245.5%10 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-18.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Reds46c6,725$3,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,650.611,35250.8%687 W · 665 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Padres54c4,648$2,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,510.273352.4%384 W · 349 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f8b…b3d7backed Padres23c4,257$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.945633.9%19 W · 37 L-5.6wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-27.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1cbe…12bcbacked Padres56c3,720$2,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,081.541,13248.9%553 W · 579 L-16.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x24f2…52a0backed Reds46c3,700$1,702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,997.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Padres54c3,593$1,955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,955.032,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7435…a620backed Reds45c3,298$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,798.3328646.5%133 W · 153 L-15.5wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Reds76c2,275$1,721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.682,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Padres21c2,259$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.339,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed Padres54c2,149$1,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,166.0797950.2%491 W · 488 L+49.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Reds76c2,024$1,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.81,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Padres55c2,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10069249%339 W · 353 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5698…53aebacked Reds44c1,875$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,050580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+79.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x62c6…55acbacked Padres57c1,767$1,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,007.2710143.6%44 W · 57 L+0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f19…b0cabacked Padres1c1,500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2046631.1%145 W · 321 L-11.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-37.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Padres55c1,450$797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$797.491,53050.5%772 W · 758 L+20.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Reds46c1,362$626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$735.4638949.1%191 W · 198 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Padres1c1,300$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.85053.8%19 W · 486 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x366a…5c71backed Padres54c1,263$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66cf…a4dbbacked Padres54c1,230$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72cf…69aebacked Reds44c1,222$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$686.733948.7%19 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45be…6a4dbacked Padres54c1,219$658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$658.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Reds45c999.98$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.9993240.5%377 W · 555 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x123a…3260backed Padres23c960.31$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2201435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-26%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b3a…da24backed Padres56c955$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.8633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf3c…29babacked Padres56c920$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.2616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick47cpaid-62.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa320…8232backed Padres57c877.19$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50028447.5%135 W · 149 L-20.9wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-15.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Reds45c799.94$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.9795850%479 W · 479 L+4.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Padres55c759.92$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.9638249.5%189 W · 193 L-1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd73b…70adbacked Padres56c672.06$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37714453.5%77 W · 67 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc614…b14bbacked Padres12c668.63$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7752542.5%223 W · 302 L+2.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Padres18c650$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11754941%225 W · 324 L-15.1wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe98b…780dbacked Reds45c598.01$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.4315151%77 W · 74 L-7.1wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x28bc…e520backed Reds46c555$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.727953.4%149 W · 130 L+16.1wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x03cd…9fdabacked Padres54c530$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.231346.6%146 W · 167 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a33…2534backed Padres56c500$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2808156.8%46 W · 35 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x12f2…0a1dbacked Reds44c466.58$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.31553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Padres4c450$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1841751.3%214 W · 203 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xff24…76c1backed Padres56c441.07$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2479332.3%30 W · 63 L-16.8wins-0.18per pick50cpaid-36.1%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xb653…85a4backed Reds46c418.04$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.7414148.2%68 W · 73 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Padres55c395.38$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.465,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cee…b72abacked Padres56c366.64$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.327554.7%41 W · 34 L+8.8wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+26.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6407…7d12backed Padres55c363.64$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20018247.8%87 W · 95 L-8.4wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x05a4…1e85backed Reds69c332.83$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.8780680%645 W · 161 L+173.6wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+34.7%equal weight73+0.21 edge/pick
0x2aa2…4d22backed Reds46c300$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16220450.5%103 W · 101 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Padres6c250$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.796133.9%326 W · 635 L-38.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa717…8919backed Padres56c228$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.6840548.9%198 W · 207 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb142…cd11backed Padres22c223.82$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2418748.1%90 W · 97 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa264…e26abacked Reds45c222.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.2210041%41 W · 59 L-9.8wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-19.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd6b2…f6e2backed Reds75c219.44$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.861872.2%13 W · 5 L+3.0wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+27.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2df4…847bbacked Reds46c217.39$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.39728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.22per pick51cpaid-41.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Reds45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1103,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Reds44c199.99$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1122,26145.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b6f…3838backed Padres31c172$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.5640547.4%192 W · 213 L+9.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ba6…09eabacked Reds45c166.67$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.678848.9%43 W · 45 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+14%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9bc9…7e5bbacked Reds45c133.33$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.3318951.3%97 W · 92 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6edc…18cebacked Reds47c127.66$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.6631356.2%176 W · 137 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1781…a0ecbacked Padres28c125$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5465549.3%323 W · 332 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2728…4f96backed Reds80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2553448.9%261 W · 273 L-1.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf14d…4c11backed Reds46c117.96$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.73447.1%16 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Reds45c107.04$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.871,40248.8%684 W · 718 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f85…da50backed Padres55c105.31$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.923525.7%9 W · 26 L-9.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-46.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xf235…366dbacked Padres55c104.87$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.681,07846.3%499 W · 579 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb61f…9958backed Padres19c103.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2027213.6%37 W · 235 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Reds45c100.03$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.351,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed Padres55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5578454.5%427 W · 357 L+19.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xac46…ca4abacked Reds45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554245.2%19 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd61e…de34backed Reds72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283974.4%29 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick70cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Padres54c99.99$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.9949450%247 W · 247 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53ee…568cbacked Reds45c98.44$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.143141.9%13 W · 18 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x629b…6f9cbacked Reds45c92.82$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.053164.5%20 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc925…67d7backed Padres56c88.63$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae7f…59a7backed Padres56c85.89$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.13548.6%17 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf29a…adb7backed Reds46c82.85$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.743250%16 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1aea…e3adbacked Padres56c79.61$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.582748.1%13 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x72fe…e2cebacked Padres54c75.99$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0451955.3%287 W · 232 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1d64…b03fbacked Reds71c70.42$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4215080%120 W · 30 L+11.6wins+0.08per pick72cpaid+11.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa588…2972backed Padres55c69.51$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.233348.5%16 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeff1…7e56backed Padres55c66.91$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.81030%3 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.25per pick55cpaid-50.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xafbc…a8b5backed Padres55c63.63$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3537552.5%197 W · 178 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x413d…7bbebacked Padres55c60.58$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.323756.8%21 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf61…8633backed Reds45c51.11$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.11666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+24.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2eb7…6479backed Reds57c50.88$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.884257.1%24 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3cc…a23abacked Reds45c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.550447.2%238 W · 266 L+29.6wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6e7d…7158backed Reds45c49.33$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.133740.5%15 W · 22 L-5.5wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-27.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Padres27c49.13$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.311,51039%589 W · 921 L-16.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x758c…6730backed Padres56c47.95$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.853063.3%19 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+17.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6cf6…7ec7backed Reds45c47.78$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.28450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5395…9ea1backed Padres56c47.64$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.68666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80fc…c14fbacked Reds45c44.44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.4416241.4%67 W · 95 L-7.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Reds45c43$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.441,46644.1%647 W · 819 L+44.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb81a…c1d0backed Reds45c42.36$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.3250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33a2…a808backed Reds46c40.17$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.69250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97da…d63bbacked Reds46c40$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.68052.5%42 W · 38 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+21%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Reds76c39$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.366,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf067…5d54backed Reds45c38.93$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.413452.9%18 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1563…cc1cbacked Reds45c37.78$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.78666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+24.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc57…dd5bbacked Padres56c36.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.41250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+22%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.