MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x756dfbf518bb67825236a468e794f3277894f7f88808cc78daf15821de2f94d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof Chicago Cubs, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,827
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,744
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,827 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xda48…5926backed San Francisco Giants | 33c | 1,247$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$838.29 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | -9.7wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 727.26$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.41 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Chicago Cubs | 71c | 563.38$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 252 | 66.3%167 W · 85 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Francisco Giants | 29c | 484.38$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.55 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed San Francisco Giants | 35c | 445.37$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.13 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Chicago Cubs | 65c | 399$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.35 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Chicago Cubs | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88aa…2f5ebacked Chicago Cubs | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…c3b7backed Chicago Cubs | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Chicago Cubs | 68c | 99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.32 | 1,201 | 49.1%590 W · 611 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Chicago Cubs | 61c | 99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.39 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed San Francisco Giants | 32c | 68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.24 | 573 | 46.9%269 W · 304 L | +14.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked San Francisco Giants | 27c | 59.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.27 | 1,022 | 50.6%517 W · 505 L | +54.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked San Francisco Giants | 27c | 59.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.28 | 167 | 61.7%103 W · 64 L | +15.8wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…04f5backed Chicago Cubs | 73c | 55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Chicago Cubs | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked San Francisco Giants | 27c | 41.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.28 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Chicago Cubs | 74c | 27.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Chicago Cubs | 65c | 21.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Chicago Cubs | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 906 | 69.9%633 W · 273 L | +94.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5)this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco GiantsChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 11.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.