MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0b2d21252b18ad48b8ef16c9a7496835d283b98c7ee1ff6f9882f7e6cb918dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,146
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,115
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,146 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 50c | 27,778$13,789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,789.06 | 552 | 53.1%293 W · 259 L | +21.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Under | 61c | 14,828$9,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,801 | 490 | 51%250 W · 240 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 51c | 10,229$5,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,999.54 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb85…152fbacked Under | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 172 | 48.3%83 W · 89 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 39c | 8,578$3,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,345.92 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 50c | 8,070$4,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,035 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Under | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Over | 50c | 4,974$2,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,487.08 | 277 | 53.1%147 W · 130 L | +10.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x459e…7dd1backed Over | 50c | 3,293$1,645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,645.07 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Under | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 40c | 2,763$1,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,096 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6b…1a3ebacked Under | 57c | 2,450$1,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,053.5 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 40c | 2,317$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$929.97 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 48c | 2,220$1,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,065.76 | 1,078 | 48.1%518 W · 560 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 52c | 2,069$1,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$991.2 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 48c | 1,485$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.68 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 61c | 979.98$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.69 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 51c | 761.93$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.35 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 52c | 723.14$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.72 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 50c | 498.74$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.37 | 575 | 51.7%297 W · 278 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39e9…e2dfbacked Over | 50c | 400$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.21 | 72 | 59.7%43 W · 29 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 54c | 388.39$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.51 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 28c | 308.3$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.58 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…509dbacked Over | 50c | 300.25$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 48c | 294.24$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.42 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Over | 51c | 250.07$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.99 | 515 | 55.7%287 W · 228 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 26c | 229.49$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.67 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Over | 26c | 226.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.79 | 548 | 15.9%87 W · 461 L | -41.1wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Under | 51c | 207.43$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.64 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 667 | 48.7%325 W · 342 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61cd…541ebacked Under | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 148 | 64.2%95 W · 53 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Over | 51c | 197.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 35c | 168.5$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.78 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 50c | 149$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.5 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…05c0backed Over | 46c | 141.3$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 50c | 140$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 50c | 134.08$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.04 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 50c | 119$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd6…bf96backed Under | 52c | 107.69$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.69 | 133 | 48.9%65 W · 68 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 46c | 104.13$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Over | 51c | 103.76$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 199 | 54.3%108 W · 91 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ae…dc88backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 50c | 94$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 41c | 85.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08a1…10dcbacked Under | 51c | 80$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 218 | 51.4%112 W · 106 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x630a…f06bbacked Over | 50c | 74$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -8.1wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 51c | 70.31$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked Under | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 149 | 46.3%69 W · 80 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b81…88e7backed Over | 42c | 64.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3a…e3b5backed Over | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 50c | 59.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 802 | 55%441 W · 361 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe246…dedcbacked Over | 51c | 59.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 267 | 53.9%144 W · 123 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43f3…293cbacked Over | 41c | 58.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Over | 51c | 57.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 51c | 56.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 179 | 53.1%95 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb66a…c1ebbacked Over | 50c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 53c | 41.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x193a…2b55backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 234 | 55.1%129 W · 105 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x829a…a748backed Over | 51c | 39.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 187 | 51.9%97 W · 90 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…f306backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 192 | 52.6%101 W · 91 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…a024backed Over | 50c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +6.5wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60d2…4268backed Under | 53c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 36c | 34.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 906 | 69.9%633 W · 273 L | +94.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 52c | 33.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c0…5fc2backed Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 253 | 56.9%144 W · 109 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6023…7141backed Under | 55c | 28.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 71c | 26.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Over | 48c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcd…724dbacked Over | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb465…72b6backed Over | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcc…13c3backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco GiantsChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 11.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.