MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85031011885f1d55acd202eeb93389c54b06a100dfa20e293790a3ae4a486f5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,804
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,685
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,804 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 33c | 5,165$1,694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,693.76 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 63c | 3,083$1,928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,154.91 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Under | 42c | 2,381$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 58c | 1,854$1,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.38 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 51c | 687.24$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.49 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 49c | 484.98$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.34 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 24c | 332.89$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.89 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 76c | 300.61$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.12 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Over | 63c | 299.98$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.98 | 211 | 49.3%104 W · 107 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 24c | 267.63$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.23 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Over | 50c | 231.09$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.89 | 547 | 15.9%87 W · 460 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 59c | 231$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.14 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 76c | 222$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.28 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 17c | 200.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa5de…33b5backed Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 76c | 196.72$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.28 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 59c | 140.17$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.47 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 48c | 130.17$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.52 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 65c | 118$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.55 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 53c | 112.3$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.65 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Over | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 541 | 46.8%253 W · 288 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0645…c08ebacked Under | 32c | 94.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 50c | 89.18$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 45c | 88.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfa…5106backed Over | 76c | 85.53$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 69c | 82.61$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f3…293cbacked Under | 59c | 76.4$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.08 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4cbabacked Over | 72c | 67.81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 309 | 63.1%195 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…04f5backed Under | 60c | 67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e11…d36ebacked Under | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 90 | 26.7%24 W · 66 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 43c | 49.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Under | 49c | 49.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Under | 25c | 41.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 66c | 41.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e60…536bbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 145 | 35.9%52 W · 93 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 69c | 36.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 48c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 39c | 30.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a6…252abacked Over | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…2c66backed Over | 73c | 24.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Over | 76c | 24.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4b…0da9backed Over | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.22per pick | 64cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Over | 74c | 19.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 260 | 63.8%166 W · 94 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeff4…2aa4backed Over | 74c | 19.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 61c | 18.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 75c | 16.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Over | 76c | 13.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco GiantsChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 11.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.