Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x757230f724709c563827dda6be74a6e008e4884ea3756bdb4f692d40f829290b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,005
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,411
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,005 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 41c | 631.59$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.57 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 50c | 528.68$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.53 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 79c | 420.62$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.49 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 43c | 304.03$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.1 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af2…ce86backed Yes | 77c | 247.2$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.8 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 74c | 242.82$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.78 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 80c | 228.32$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.7 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 21c | 225.7$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.76 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 17c | 180$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.9 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb5…d2c8backed Yes | 66c | 175.36$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.31 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 22c | 168.75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.97 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 38c | 151.61$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.93 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 18c | 149.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.95 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…2d33backed No | 10c | 148$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 31c | 132.42$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.43 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c01…aa0fbacked Yes | 19c | 127$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +116.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 57c | 125.77$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.15 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 45c | 125.16$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.02 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 53c | 118.32$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.95 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad1…b4c5backed No | 67c | 112.59$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.07 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.31per pick | 61cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 11c | 107.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.57 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a9…4bdfbacked Yes | 56c | 105.62$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.35 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 76c | 103.62$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.52 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 45c | 101.95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 47c | 95.77$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.77 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x591c…619fbacked Yes | 28c | 92.72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.08 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 21c | 88.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.72 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 18c | 88.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.34 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 74c | 86.34$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.02 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 76c | 80.97$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 80c | 80.44$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.26 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 34c | 79.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.46 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 78c | 78.07$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 16c | 70.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.9 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac6c…ff17backed Yes | 76c | 69.95$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 59c | 69.48$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.66 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed Yes | 33c | 67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.97 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 35c | 64.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.97 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 28c | 63.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.66 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 63c | 57.13$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 64c | 56.32$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9757…2dbfbacked Yes | 46c | 53.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.66 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4dab…6d0ebacked Yes | 22c | 53.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +126.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 28c | 53.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.37 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 51.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95e0…d772backed No | 62c | 50.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.26per pick | 63cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe256…0408backed Yes | 20c | 50.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.1 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 25c | 43.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.07 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 41.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 35c | 41.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb47b…3b53backed No | 62c | 39.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 70c | 36.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x714c…9c5fbacked Yes | 47c | 35.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe978…ab29backed Yes | 36c | 35.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38ae…ba29backed Yes | 34c | 34.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +192.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 41c | 33.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 67c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked Yes | 63c | 31.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…bee4backed Yes | 64c | 29.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 28.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa661…9d2ebacked No | 75c | 26.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 61c | 25.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 70c | 22.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 78c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 70c | 18.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or below on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on May 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.