Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will AJ Auxerre vs. Lille OSC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x757738328083668089c4edf8c4a9a2b7a0dfb6114dac35e9286f6f4620edb1ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,060
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,542
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,060 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 38c | 3,406$1,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,116.33 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ff…62ccbacked Yes | 29c | 2,160$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.36 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 54c | 1,597$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.39 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02d…16cabacked Yes | 65c | 1,230$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 21c | 1,102$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.47 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 51c | 991.72$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.05 | 376 | 38.8%146 W · 230 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Yes | 48c | 951.18$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.25 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 72c | 855.84$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.62 | 150 | 71.3%107 W · 43 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 41c | 792.63$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.1 | 110 | 70%77 W · 33 L | +18.3wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 29c | 765.52$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 232 | 50.9%118 W · 114 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 73c | 684$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.4 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +16.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 54c | 485.23$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.07 | 284 | 48.2%137 W · 147 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 7c | 454.28$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 260 | 40.4%105 W · 155 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae9…74acbacked No | 28c | 409.09$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 32cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a0…35cdbacked Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbd…21d2backed Yes | 10c | 300$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed No | 73c | 300$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Yes | 26c | 243.21$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…9124backed Yes | 8c | 233.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb04…3ce1backed Yes | 33c | 181.82$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed Yes | 28c | 158$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 60c | 148.72$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.57 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 29c | 145.62$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.21 | 202 | 32.7%66 W · 136 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…3d44backed Yes | 31c | 130.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 45c | 112.1$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.55 | 351 | 57%200 W · 151 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 13c | 108$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 162 | 42%68 W · 94 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…a764backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 66cpaid | +56%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…bd4bbacked Yes | 13c | 94.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07ec…ba9fbacked No | 80c | 87.22$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed No | 79c | 74.73$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57e4…a93cbacked Yes | 77c | 71.22$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 27c | 70.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4234…6b87backed Yes | 32c | 62.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 50cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9f…0852backed No | 73c | 56.51$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 75cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9840…cb31backed No | 72c | 47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 27c | 47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a7…261bbacked No | 72c | 46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…9062backed No | 72c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 72cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4135…2d72backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eda…1847backed No | 40c | 37.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe6…d729backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbba…e95bbacked No | 72c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 73c | 17.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 57 | 78.9%45 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…9b74backed No | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b2…6a84backed No | 75c | 13.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 71cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AJ Auxerre vs. Lille OSC end in a draw?this page
- Will AJ Auxerre win on 2025-12-14?No won
- Will Lille OSC win on 2025-12-14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.