Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will AJ Auxerre win on 2025-12-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7131d1e3edc073a03928cf253b8e37234ecfa8541bc686444712f1bed25f373
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,814
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,204
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,814 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 72c | 7,245$5,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,055.14 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 78c | 2,999$2,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.83 | 143 | 46.9%67 W · 76 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 52c | 2,894$1,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,387.86 | 376 | 38.8%146 W · 230 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 27c | 2,536$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.63 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 29c | 2,458$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.39 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Yes | 13c | 2,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7197…14c8backed Yes | 46c | 1,806$837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$837 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed No | 33c | 1,500$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,005 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd178…6703backed Yes | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.02 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 67c | 925.47$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.07 | 351 | 57%200 W · 151 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 71c | 869.08$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.52 | 284 | 48.2%137 W · 147 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 45c | 781$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.23 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b5…7ba6backed Yes | 7c | 713.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.32per pick | 46cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Yes | 37c | 713.03$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.74 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10d0…7b84backed Yes | 18c | 694.44$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 43c | 650$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.7 | 202 | 32.7%66 W · 136 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 77c | 640$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.2 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +16.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f11…4529backed Yes | 17c | 599.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa0…fbbdbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 25c | 495$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.2 | 246 | 42.3%104 W · 142 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b21…78d4backed No | 73c | 440$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Yes | 46c | 430.57$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9776…fc56backed Yes | 24c | 415.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076e…a6a4backed Yes | 69c | 323.9$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 68cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf540…cc07backed Yes | 69c | 318.84$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 310 | 49.4%153 W · 157 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 30c | 235.84$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 11c | 218.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e7…4dc1backed Yes | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2076…bf0dbacked Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed No | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a93…32a0backed Yes | 43c | 150$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcf…6c9bbacked Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd502…4d4cbacked No | 78c | 136.59$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 12c | 131.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e88…f3c9backed Yes | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…3d44backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbd…21d2backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d55…1e94backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ec…a7b9backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 32cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 78c | 98.26$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb65c…dcdfbacked No | 79c | 84.05$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 22c | 67.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Yes | 22c | 67.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 22c | 63.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b99…bfb8backed Yes | 22c | 60.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Yes | 21c | 59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5992…40bfbacked Yes | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a23…97a7backed Yes | 21c | 55.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…07f5backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 23c | 45.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +6.3wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe239…14eabacked No | 76c | 43$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b83…8223backed Yes | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f25…1e6ebacked No | 79c | 39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Yes | 71c | 33.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8eda…1847backed Yes | 69c | 29.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa925…96d7backed Yes | 44c | 27.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…1f57backed No | 79c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf2…6640backed No | 79c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 78c | 16.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 57 | 78.9%45 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…7e3fbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc10d…4532backed No | 78c | 14.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ad…cc15backed No | 72c | 13.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22e5…81acbacked No | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b2…6a84backed No | 80c | 12.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.55 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 71cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AJ Auxerre win on 2025-12-14?this page
- Will AJ Auxerre vs. Lille OSC end in a draw?No won
- Will Lille OSC win on 2025-12-14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.