Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x759db5c387efaa6b2aed1039c430fb37ba283c27dc5594d1441572aa1280a1b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,837
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,324
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,837 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 10c | 643.03$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.19 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 638.03$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.11 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 18c | 367.92$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.54 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 236.64$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.96 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 31c | 223.94$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.12 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 222$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.68 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 20c | 162.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c56…14ccbacked Yes | 18c | 153.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 150.78$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 77c | 126.99$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.84 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 21c | 116.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 10c | 110.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 29c | 108.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca4d…5b1dbacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 100.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 23c | 100.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 79c | 99.96$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…9da2backed Yes | 14c | 98.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | +12.1wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 25c | 90.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 30c | 71.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 22c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 24c | 61.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4a…876bbacked Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 23c | 59.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 21c | 58.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 78c | 57.45$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 22c | 54.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 22c | 52.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 23c | 52.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed Yes | 20c | 51.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca2…fa31backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 69c | 35.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked No | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 78c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 79c | 30.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 76c | 27.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 69c | 20.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 78c | 19.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 78c | 17.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…b090backed No | 70c | 16.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 183 | 65.6%120 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 80c | 15.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…55bfbacked No | 79c | 12.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.64 | 83 | 85.5%71 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 78cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C or below on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.