Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbec56532f644f20d69a13d8ae909923d3316b6aba819e6f95902c45e466d029d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,172
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,389
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,172 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 54c | 689.52$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.2 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 43c | 417.72$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.2 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 4c | 296.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 27c | 288.93$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.74 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 54c | 255.14$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.11 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 49c | 246.75$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.64 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 58c | 241.74$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.71 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 40c | 206.45$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.01 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 205.52$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 47c | 195.61$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.1 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 181.03$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.91 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a8…c5b9backed Yes | 44c | 155$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.48 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 36c | 153.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.44 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 150.66$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.02 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 57c | 141.33$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.25 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 57c | 139.97$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.19 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 38c | 134.75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.11 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 129.82$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.1 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 56c | 125.93$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.41 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 54c | 116.43$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.38 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 9c | 112$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 37c | 110.88$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 52c | 109.94$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.34 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 53c | 107$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.21 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 43c | 99.72$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.27 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 38c | 96.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.37 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 52c | 91$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 54c | 88$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.48 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 42c | 85.91$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.73 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca2…fa31backed Yes | 31c | 82.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 52c | 81.42$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.08 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked No | 56c | 71.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.34 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 60c | 70.44$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 55c | 66.85$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.19 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 59c | 64.48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 48c | 64.34$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.46 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 17c | 61.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 64c | 61.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa4…aa1bbacked Yes | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37df…f8b9backed Yes | 37c | 57.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 119 | 58.8%70 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 52c | 57.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 54c | 52.26$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 49c | 51.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 35c | 50.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe02d…bcffbacked No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 41c | 48.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed Yes | 48c | 48.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 41c | 47.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 53c | 47.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 45c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed No | 51c | 44.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 62c | 44.17$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdde0…e2e4backed Yes | 55c | 43.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 62c | 42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x376c…41acbacked Yes | 48c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 59c | 40.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 59c | 39.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fec…9d17backed Yes | 52c | 38.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 47c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d4…5ba7backed No | 58c | 35.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb6…4f98backed No | 56c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 58c | 34.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 60c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 48c | 33.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 35c | 33.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 53c | 32.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 35c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…d9d1backed Yes | 45c | 31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 52c | 30.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 68c | 30.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 57c | 28.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 77c | 28.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 47c | 27.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 53c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 41c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 64c | 25.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x427a…4e18backed Yes | 42c | 24.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 61c | 23.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 61c | 23.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a9…d211backed Yes | 50c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 51c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 58c | 21.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f2…ef25backed No | 55c | 21.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae92…329ebacked Yes | 49c | 21.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed No | 62c | 20.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…dcc6backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5857…aa12backed No | 56c | 19.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4a…68afbacked No | 61c | 18.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 57c | 17.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C or below on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.