UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75a6209f7e10c1d3069469d07c0d0bdd9905d4998cae851ff76dc874176ad967
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,326
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,368
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,326 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2697…0b15backed Over | 60c | 4,014$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 57c | 1,674$951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950.76 | 203 | 48.3%98 W · 105 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Under | 45c | 1,666$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$918.03 | 155 | 52.3%81 W · 74 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 40c | 1,168$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.42 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Over | 57c | 652.92$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.95 | 136 | 47.8%65 W · 71 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87b6…4ababacked Under | 43c | 500$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1a…bc89backed Under | 42c | 476$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.08 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa2…6df9backed Over | 62c | 467.08$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 58c | 426.5$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.77 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a49…651abacked Under | 42c | 318$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.44 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a70…4865backed Under | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2afc…23c9backed Under | 42c | 240$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.2 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91bc…28d6backed Under | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…f636backed Under | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63a7…3bb2backed Under | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xadfa…36f4backed Under | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67d3…b524backed Under | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce6…f60abacked Under | 42c | 190.48$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.48 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 26c | 189.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.23 | 175 | 24%42 W · 133 L | -22.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0a…1bd3backed Under | 42c | 167.38$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.38 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 56c | 136.07$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.2 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…a806backed Over | 56c | 125.82$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.46 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.29per pick | 52cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x93a8…4287backed Under | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad8…5004backed Under | 44c | 111.87$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.65 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +5.3wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac1e…ea39backed Under | 45c | 110.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.76 | 324 | 31.8%103 W · 221 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0925…dda4backed Under | 41c | 108$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.62 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda9e…7b03backed Under | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.24 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Over | 54c | 91.26$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 37c | 79.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.14 | 107 | 63.6%68 W · 39 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x09b5…fd79backed Under | 45c | 77.78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5a…07b6backed Under | 44c | 75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57af…81cebacked Under | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f19…77e3backed Under | 45c | 55.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0157…a97ebacked Under | 42c | 52.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b46…fd16backed Under | 45c | 48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +6.3wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0477…631cbacked Under | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3d…9351backed Under | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c26…1d30backed Under | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…1fafbacked Over | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47b8…6e4cbacked Over | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…51debacked Under | 42c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5cc…ed79backed Under | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 41c | 25.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a6…252abacked Over | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e94…776bbacked Under | 45c | 24.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 59c | 18.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 242 | 56.2%136 W · 106 L | +20.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherweight, Main Card)Murtazali Magomedov won
- Will the fight be won by submission?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.