MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Angels
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75dad1e43fb172c54465edbce2d653efa592d358a7750aeb6d2a9183fc7e4762
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,079
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,312
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,079 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 41c | 4,273$1,742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,742.48 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0df…5974backed No | 60c | 1,667$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.67 | 222 | 57.2%127 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Yes | 44c | 1,035$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.4 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36e6…ad16backed No | 60c | 1,003$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.08 | 75 | 64%48 W · 27 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 40c | 999.99$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.49 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 67c | 892.93$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.52 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed No | 59c | 847$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.27 | 204 | 55.9%114 W · 90 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed No | 60c | 833.33$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.33 | 281 | 52%146 W · 135 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadf0…00fbbacked Yes | 40c | 784.02$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.61 | 492 | 50.4%248 W · 244 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c75…227fbacked No | 59c | 672.71$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.81 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 57c | 605.5$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.6 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9621…0a73backed No | 59c | 593.22$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.22 | 186 | 58.6%109 W · 77 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed No | 58c | 526.77$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.58 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 40c | 346.46$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.13 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 41c | 322.81$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.91 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a49…651abacked No | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce00…7d1dbacked No | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07aa…63bfbacked No | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 193 | 58%112 W · 81 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 42c | 153.69$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.55 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 58c | 133$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.86 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Yes | 43c | 112.31$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.29 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f0…361dbacked No | 59c | 109.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed No | 59c | 103$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.23 | 423 | 55.6%235 W · 188 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…51debacked No | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 222 | 57.7%128 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b5…fd79backed No | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 185 | 56.2%104 W · 81 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Yes | 44c | 80.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 41c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 161 | 32.3%52 W · 109 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffd…3ef3backed No | 59c | 77.4$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1607…2c65backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 219 | 54.8%120 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes | 42c | 42.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeccc…f0f8backed No | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6540backed Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 148 | 48.6%72 W · 76 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…846bbacked No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36e8…772abacked No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07ea…f3a4backed No | 59c | 32.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718f…f25abacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -40%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Angelsthis page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Angels: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 3.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.