Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Musetti vs Tiafoe
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75f1da2346f4419fb33adb5e4198b219146572294c552e109496ebc1e0562051
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tiafoeof Musetti, Tiafoe
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,425
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,640
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,425 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Tiafoe | 76c | 3,085$2,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.48 | 191 | 67%128 W · 63 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Tiafoe | 50c | 1,503$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.37 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Musetti | 30c | 1,362$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.95 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…764ebacked Musetti | 41c | 976.13$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc5…d36ebacked Musetti | 50c | 930.92$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.46 | 180 | 44.4%80 W · 100 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb361…7348backed Tiafoe | 64c | 625.47$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.47 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc918…7411backed Musetti | 51c | 571.37$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1691…1e24backed Tiafoe | 42c | 505$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…4883backed Musetti | 60c | 330.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Musetti | 27c | 325.19$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.25 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Tiafoe | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Tiafoe | 40c | 231.26$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.24 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Tiafoe | 45c | 210.33$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Tiafoe | 48c | 178.36$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.06 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…86e1backed Tiafoe | 38c | 127.26$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.22 | 149 | 21.5%32 W · 117 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Musetti | 57c | 110.31$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.9 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Musetti | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b57…bf08backed Tiafoe | 35c | 91.43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.43 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +7.0wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10b7…2400backed Musetti | 44c | 84.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.08 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40f7…1f5ebacked Musetti | 50c | 70.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 747 | 43.6%326 W · 421 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Tiafoe | 57c | 65.33$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17f5…f087backed Musetti | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 177 | 57.6%102 W · 75 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Tiafoe | 49c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Musetti | 50c | 30.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 195 | 37.4%73 W · 122 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x546a…1988backed Tiafoe | 50c | 30.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 94 | 39.4%37 W · 57 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Tiafoe | 47c | 25.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 603 | 41.1%248 W · 355 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Tiafoe | 40c | 24.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 743 | 46.3%344 W · 399 L | -28.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…7cf3backed Tiafoe | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Musetti vs Tiafoethis page
- Cincinnati Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs Frances TiafoeFrances Tiafoe won
- Lorenzo Musetti vs. Frances Tiafoe: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Musetti vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Musetti vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Set 2 Winner: Musetti vs TiafoeTiafoe won
- Set Handicap: Musetti (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5)Tiafoe won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.