Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Musetti (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9cf0ca04a0c15d857aec14df57c55928e5da33ac29412ab403b276d5bfefa8d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tiafoeof Musetti, Tiafoe
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,505
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,607
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,505 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc9f…21f7backed Tiafoe | 72c | 1,295$932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.6 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Musetti | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 1,505 | 37.7%568 W · 937 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Musetti | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 2,304 | 51.1%1,177 W · 1,127 L | +10.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Musetti | 27c | 999.98$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.42 | 1,090 | 52.6%573 W · 517 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Tiafoe | 73c | 645$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.15 | 1,013 | 50.1%508 W · 505 L | +36.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce7…3150backed Tiafoe | 72c | 556.38$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.38 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Musetti | 28c | 437.02$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.37 | 2,137 | 36.8%787 W · 1,350 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9deb…536fbacked Tiafoe | 73c | 324.37$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.58 | 145 | 55.9%81 W · 64 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbedb…6bc3backed Tiafoe | 73c | 324.37$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.58 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Musetti | 28c | 316.29$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.85 | 6,998 | 39.7%2,779 W · 4,219 L | -16.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa521…d609backed Tiafoe | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +4.6wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Tiafoe | 73c | 193.5$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.24 | 248 | 46.4%115 W · 133 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…4883backed Tiafoe | 73c | 138.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.03 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb4…0060backed Tiafoe | 73c | 136.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65fa…4c6abacked Tiafoe | 75c | 134$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 74cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bb…2753backed Tiafoe | 71c | 105.63$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.63 | 247 | 51%126 W · 121 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Musetti | 25c | 102.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f2…d56fbacked Musetti | 29c | 99.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Musetti | 28c | 99.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 509 | 48.1%245 W · 264 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f96…9ecebacked Tiafoe | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 73cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Tiafoe | 73c | 22.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 481 | 51.6%248 W · 233 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Musetti (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs Frances TiafoeFrances Tiafoe won
- Lorenzo Musetti vs. Frances Tiafoe: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Musetti vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Musetti vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Musetti vs TiafoeTiafoe won
- Set 2 Winner: Musetti vs TiafoeTiafoe won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.