Serie A · resolved market
Udinese Calcio vs. SS Lazio: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x764c82227750abbca16434888a1fa7718dcf575d42ca0a25979c4397d4c01394
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,187
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,165
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,187 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Over | 21c | 2,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8efe…7b44backed Over | 34c | 1,173$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.8 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 15c | 1,017$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.72 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Under | 66c | 1,000$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b21…41fabacked Over | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Over | 33c | 999.78$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.93 | 118 | 37.3%44 W · 74 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 34c | 527.67$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.83 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 34c | 459.74$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.31 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Under | 67c | 447.76$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.76 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 34c | 441.18$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 156 | 48.7%76 W · 80 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Over | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 30c | 346.67$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 131 | 42%55 W · 76 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1842…b628backed Under | 75c | 290$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 40c | 262.34$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.93 | 314 | 41.4%130 W · 184 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Over | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 62c | 134.7$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.18 | 196 | 52%102 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed Under | 66c | 133$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.22 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 17c | 129.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 248 | 49.2%122 W · 126 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 74c | 86.84$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Under | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae28…5d17backed Under | 66c | 76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…a925backed Over | 30c | 66.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…054ebacked Over | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 22cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7cae…bf8abacked Over | 38c | 59.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 92 | 52.2%48 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2e…ae9abacked Over | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9014…db4abacked Over | 37c | 48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f9…e894backed Over | 37c | 48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Over | 33c | 45.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26fc…2286backed Over | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…1f57backed Over | 34c | 39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…420bbacked Under | 69c | 33.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5af1…f988backed Over | 37c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…a9f7backed Over | 37c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…3105backed Over | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 86 | 51.2%44 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Over | 35c | 29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 171 | 42.7%73 W · 98 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d42…5305backed Over | 37c | 27.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 74c | 19.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 368 | 52.7%194 W · 174 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c3…60d9backed Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Udinese Calcio vs. SS Lazio: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: SS Lazio (-1.5)Udinese Calcio won
- Udinese Calcio vs. SS Lazio: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Udinese Calcio vs. SS Lazio: O/U 1.5Over won
- Udinese Calcio vs. SS Lazio: O/U 3.5Under won
- Udinese Calcio vs. SS Lazio: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.